The memory that gets blurred. The affections that cancel each other out. The mind that appears distant, almost unattainable. And a fog that thickens over thought. For those who face Alzheimer’s disease and for those who live alongside them, the challenge is difficult. And health and social services need to offer answers to those who assist these people, often. 24 hours a day. So if there are answers on the clinical care front, more and more attention is needed to social needs, also in light of the numbers that speak of the expectation of an increase in cases.
But what services should be provided? An answer comes from research published on Scandinavian Journal of Public Health, conducted by experts from the University of Helsinki on the situation in Finland. The study was conducted as part of a project entitled “Ithe life course and economic implications of demographic change” (LIFECON), funded by the DEMOGRAPHY program of the Strategic Research Council. The Strategic Research Council operates under the aegis of the Research Council of Finland.
The need increases
Every patient is different. And it’s unpredictable. Therefore it is necessary to support both the patient himself and those who live near the patient. Having made this clarification, let’s see what the research presents. The study used data from national registers to analyze dementia diagnoses and use of long-term care services, both in residential and health and social care settings, among people aged 65 and over, between 2000 and 2018. Future trends were assessed under several alternative scenarios, based on assumptions about trends in dementia incidence, mortality and long-term care provision.
The study provides a first numerical projection based on national registry data, separately assessing the number of people with dementia living at home and in long-term care facilities by 2040. The total number of people with dementia is projected to increase from approximately 124,000 in 2018 to approximately 216,000 by 2040, due to an aging population and increasing life expectancy.
“The phenomenon is in itself positive, as it indicates that more and more people are living longer. At the same time, the number of people suffering from dementia is growing, increasing the need for assistance and services”
is the comment of one of the scholars, Maria Guzman-Castillo of the University of Helsinki.
How to organize services
The analysis examined two alternative trends in the provision of institutional and residential services. If service provision remained at 2018 levels, the total number of people requiring long-term care would increase by around 60%, reaching around 117,000 people by 2040. Around three-quarters of these would be affected by dementia, with an estimated 126,000 people living at home with the condition. If, on the other hand, the provision of services continued to decline at the same rate as before 2018, the number of people requiring long-term care would be reduced by about 10% compared to 2018. At the same time, the number of people living at home with dementia would increase from 71,000 to as many as 170,000.
“Regardless of the number of places available in care facilities, the population’s need for care will increase. Many people with dementia living at home also require considerable support and care”
points out Kaarina Korhonen, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Helsinki.
She also points out that home care for people with significant care needs is not necessarily cheaper for society than 24-hour care.
