The spread between Italian BTPs and German Bunds recorded a very slight decline at the beginning of Monday 30th March compared to the close of Friday 27th. The 96 points recorded at the opening indicate that the bond markets have not been moved by the hypotheses of a land invasion by Iran and by the forecasts that, in this scenario, oil could reach 200 dollars a barrel.
Over the weekend, the results of the end-March government bond auctions were published, through which the Treasury raised more than 21 billion euros. Demand has been high, well ahead of supply, but spread-biased yields have seen a significant increase.
The spread between BTPs and Bunds is stable, awaiting developments in Iran
The 10-year benchmark BTPs reached a yield of 4.05% at the opening of March 30th. In comparison, German Bunds remained at 3.05%, resulting in a substantial stability of the spread, at 96 basis points compared to 97 at the closing on Friday27.
The differential remains high. The recent spike has reversed all the progress made in the last six months. During that period the spread increase was 11.94%, but since the beginning of 2026 the spread has grown by almost 48%.
Spain and France are still at a standstill
Last week, Italian BTPs suffered large yield fluctuations, which had repercussions on the spread. In comparison, the Spanish Bonos remained very stable, stuck just below 55 basis points for most of the days. A trend also confirmed at the start of Monday 30 March, with the Madrid titles 54 points behind the German ones.
| Government bonds | Returns | Spreads |
|---|---|---|
| German Bunds | 3.09% | – |
| Italian BTPs | 4.05% | 96 |
| French Oats | 3.84% | 75 |
| Spanish bonos | 3.63% | 54 |
The French OATs were also stuck on Friday’s yields, maintaining a differential of 75 basis points and a yield of 3.84%, very similar to those of the final hours of last week.
How did the March auctions go?
Despite the difficulties on the financial markets, the BTP and BOT auctions at the end of March ended with excellent results for the Treasury. Demand has always significantly exceeded supply, even in supplementary auctions, leading to the exhaustion of the products offered. A total of 21.125 billion euros of government bonds were placed, divided into:
| Government bonds | Amount sold | Expiry date | Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 year BTP | 2 billion euros | February 28, 2028 | 2.20% |
| Btp€ia 5 years | 1 billion euros | August 15, 2031 | 1.10% |
| Btp€ia 10 years | 1 billion euros | May 15, 2036 | 1.80% |
| Bot at 6 months | 8.625 billion euros | September 30, 2026 | 2.48% |
| 5 year BTP | 2.5 billion euros | February 1, 2031 | 3.48% |
| 10 year BTP | 2.5 billion euros | February 1, 2036 | 4.09% |
| CctEu | 3.5 billion euros | April 15, 2035 | 3.05% |
The next auctions of Italian government bonds will be held in April and will be:
- the Bots auction will be held on April 9th;
- the auction of medium and long-term BTPs will be held on April 10;
- the auction of Btp Short and Btp€i will be held on 24 April;
- a new Bots auction will be held on April 28;
- The last auction of the month will be held on April 29th, again of medium and long-term BTPs.
