Global and Italian investors move between optimism and caution in view of the next half-year, maintaining an overall constructive orientation but without particular impulses. This is what emerges from the Investor Forecast 2026 of BG SAXO and Saxo Bank, which analyzes the investment prospects in the next six months of a sample of approximately 1,700 people around the world.
The analysis identifies Japan as the market with the most solid prospects, while expectations for the United States and Europe remain more limited: in fact, at an international level, 57% of investors expect growth in global markets. Among the main geographical areas, only 40% of respondents believe in a positive performance in the United States, while the analysis identifies Japan as the market with the most solid prospects (63%). Looking at Italy, at a global level 48% of investors expect a growth in the stock market, but their compatriots remain more cautious: only 31% of Italian investors expect an increase in the domestic market.
In terms of portfolio choices, continuity prevails: 63% of global investors plan to keep the allocation unchanged, 27% evaluate new opportunities and only 10% hypothesize a reduction in diversification.
Among the main drivers of the semester, market assessments are confirmed as the most relevant factor (69%), followed by US political dynamics (57%) and the growing role of artificial intelligence, perceived as an opportunity by 56% of respondents and a risk by 53%. Overall, a conscious investor emerges, balancing attention to risks and seeking opportunities in a complex macroeconomic context.
Gian Paolo Bazzani, CEO of BG SAXO, states: “This survey shows that Italian investors make similar choices to international ones, despite showing a more prudent approach. Among the main differences, Italian women show a greater propensity for diversification, while those under 35 are less confident in growth compared to their global peers. In a complex and rapidly changing market context, the demand from investors to stay informed emerges decisively, and in turn, we believe it is essential to offer not only financial instruments, but also targeted insights, to allow investors to make informed and conscious decisions”.
Global equities: great expectations for Japan, less for the USA and Europe
At an international level, the picture highlights a general optimism about the performance of stock markets, with a clear preference for Japan, which confirms itself as the market with the highest expectations: around 63% of investors expect growth in the next six months. Sentiment remains solid in general on the global market (57%) and Europe (51%), while it diminishes significantly in the United States (40%). Analyzes by gender and age confirm a greater propensity for optimism among women and younger investors: for example, 62% of women expect growth in the global stock market, compared to 57% of men, while investors between 18 and 35 years old show more positive expectations than more mature groups, particularly on global and European markets.
In comparison with Italy, a more prudent and stability-oriented approach emerges, while maintaining the same hierarchy of preferences. Even among Italian investors, Japan represents the market with the most favorable prospects, but with more marked demographic dynamics: women show a higher level of trust (66.7% vs 57.6% of men), as do younger people (66.7% in the 18-35 age group, compared to 58.3% among 36-60 year olds and 54.8% of those over 61). On the European stock front, however, there is a greater divergence of perceptions: men are more positive, while among women 50% expect a worsening of performance (vs. 19.3% of men). Finally, young people stand out for their wait-and-see attitude, with 70% not expecting significant changes in the European market in the semester.
Performance of the Italian stock market
Looking at the domestic market, Italian investors’ expectations on the FTSE MIB outline a picture of continuity. In detail, 31% of those interviewed expect growth in the next six months, while the relative majority – equal to 50.7% – expects substantial stability, and 18.3% hypothesizes a contraction. The data confirms moderate confidence, with a more defensive orientation with respect to the international context – 48% of global investors, in fact, declare that they expect positive performances from our shares.
The cluster analysis highlights some relevant differences: among men, expectations are in line with the average figure (30.4% growth, 51.1% stability), while women show a greater propensity for optimism, with 40% predicting an increase and no indication of a decrease. At a demographic level, the youngest (18–35 years) are characterized by a strongly wait-and-see attitude (60% stability), while in the more mature groups a greater polarization emerges: among those over 61, 37.3% expect growth, but the share of those expecting a worsening also increases (19.6%).
Caution on diversification
At a global level, investors confirm an approach based on continuity: approximately 63% expect to keep their allocation unchanged, while 27% consider an expansion and only 10% hypothesize a reduction. The differences by gender and age highlight a greater propensity for diversification among women (34% vs 26% of men), while younger profiles are more dynamic.
The Italian framework is substantially aligned with the global context, confirming an orientation towards the stability of allocations. The main differences emerge on the gender front: Italian women show greater openness to diversification, with 40% planning to expand their exposures, compared to 26.2% of compatriot men and 34% of global women.
Macrothemes: overvaluation, US policies and artificial intelligence
At a global level, the main driver capable of influencing any changes in strategy remains the perception of overvaluation of the markets (69%). This is followed by political and technological factors: the potential consequences of Donald Trump’s policies (57%) and artificial intelligence, perceived both as an opportunity (56%) and a risk (53%).
The Italian picture reflects the global trend on the topic of overvaluation, with 69.9% of investors ready to reconsider the strategy. However, on other factors the reactivity is lower: only 46.3% of Italian investors consider Donald Trump’s policies a relevant element (with a marked difference between 48.1% men and 20% women), while European defense stands at 42.5% (with greater sensitivity among those over 61: 53.2%, compared to 27.3% of younger people). Artificial intelligence confirms itself as a transversal driver: 48.9% opportunities and 49.2% risks, with all women considering it risky.
Particularly significant is the optimism linked to growth: in Italy 45.5% of respondents consider it a reason to change their investment strategies (60% among women, 45.7% among men). The highest value is recorded at 47.8% of the over 60s, while the minimum drops to just 27.3% in the 18-35 age group. This trend is in stark contrast to the international context, where although the overall figure stands at 53.2%, the greatest optimism is expressed by those under 35, a value that gradually decreases to 51.7% of those over 60.
Overall, Italy highlights a more selective and less reactive approach than the global average, with a marked focus on the risk of overvaluation of the markets.
