The British newspaper Guardian published an investigation in which it found that this summer, in Europe, 35 thousand more people than expected died due to the heat. The most affected countries are Germany, France and Spain, while Italy has not seen any particular peaks in the general population, despite the scorching temperatures.
In some cities, however, mortality was much higher than expected, with excesses reaching even 50%. In June the deaths were concentrated in the North, while in July it was the South that recorded the highest number of deaths.
The heat has killed 35 thousand people in Europe
In Europe, the country most in difficulty with data on excess mortality due to heat is Germany. According to data from the Robert Koch Institute, cited by the Guardian, between 6 April and 9 August there were at least 14,000 heat-related deaths in the country. In the period between 22 and 28 June alone, 9,600 people died.
Even in Spain it was a difficult summer in terms of deaths due to the heat. The Carlos III Health Institute recorded almost 5 thousand more deaths than expected between May and August. In France, however, between May and the end of June the excess deaths would have been 7,300.
How to count heat-related deaths
However, these data are not extrapolated directly from hospitals on a case-by-case basis. It is in fact impossible to understand, for each patient, which deaths depend on heat. For example, one of the categories most exposed to heat-related deaths are people with a chronic disease, which in a medical record would be reported as the only cause of death.
To calculate how many people die from the heat, a statistical method is used, similar to that used for epidemics. You look at the average mortality for the period over the last few years, usually the last 10, and compare it with the mortality for the same period of the current year. If there are significant deviations that are not attributable to other causes, in summer the heat is assumed to have contributed.
Italy, fewer deaths than expected due to the heat
This system is also used in Italy, even if the data does not cover the entire national population, but only the cities with more than 100 thousand inhabitants and the capitals, 54 centers in total, which host just over a third of the total inhabitants. The data available at the moment are those of June and July and, unlike in other European countries, there has not been a marked excess of deaths linked to heat waves.
June data and excess mortality in the North
In June the heat seems to have killed more in the North than in the South. The cities that recorded an excess of deaths are:
- Turin, with 859 deaths, 136 more than expected;
- Novara, with 119 deaths, 39 more than expected (+49%);
- Rome, with 2,248 deaths, 122 more than expected.
Deaths were concentrated mainly among older people, with an excess of 3% among those over 65 years old.
In July, the South was among the areas most in difficulty
In July, however, heat-related deaths were concentrated mainly in the South. The most affected cities were Palermo and Cagliari, but in general the variations were not very significant at a national level. Even the cities that had suffered the most in June fell within the average or recorded a lower mortality than expected.
Because in Italy very few people die from the heat
The online newspaper The Post reported the opinion of Paola Michelozzi, director of the environmental epidemiology unit of the Lazio Regional Health Service, who explained that the reasons why Italian statistics are so lower than those of other large European countries regarding heat-related mortality may be:
- greater preparation of the health system to respond to this type of emergency;
- a greater diffusion of air conditioning, which is present in approximately half of Italian buildings;
- increased people’s attention to heat as a health hazard.
