Following the duties imposed by the President of the United States Donald Trump In China, Vietnam and India and other countries, the prices of many consumer tech products could increase between 30% and 43%: according to the provisions of analysts of Rosenblatt Securitiesthe cost of a iPhone top of the range, for example, could rise up to 2300 dollars If Apple had the increase in consumer costs fall on the additional costs, thus lowering the profit margins. This is because the “melafonini” are largely produced in China, on which at the moment they deceive duties up to 54%. The possible “duties effect” would also have repercussions on tablet, portable And game consolelike the new Switch 2whose pre -orders were blocked by Nintendo precisely because of the delicate current situation.
What the duties are and why they will have effects on the tech world
To better understand the context, it is useful to know What is a duty. Basically it is a Tax set on goods imported by another country. It is often used as an instrument of economic pressure or as a measure of protection of the internal industry of a country. In recent months, the United States have also announced rates of 54% for products from China and of the 46% from Vietnamgeographical areas where most of global electronic production is concentrated. This is a particularly serious problem for companies like Apple, which despite the attempts to diversify production, still depend largely from China: beyond 90% of the iPhones sold in the world comes from the Chinese factories of Foxconn And Luxshare.
Trump’s declared objective is to combat alleged unfair commercial practices, such as currency manipulation, that is, the artificial intervention of governments to maintain their coin underestimated and thus make exports more competitive. The concrete result is one increasing pressure on the final prices of consumer goodswhich could discourage purchases just when the demand for technological devices is already in slowing down for various reasons.
In all this, after the previous “duties war” of 2018, many companies (like Apple) have decided to diversify their production, progressively moving it to extra-china countries, including Vietnam and India. Since the latter are now affected by the new Trump measures, their diversification strategy was ineffective. And as regards transferring all production to the United States, as desired by Trump, well … this clashes with rather impressive structural obstacles, primarily the costs of labor (in some cases even ten times higher than the costs to be faced in the aforementioned Asian countries) and the lack of qualified personnel.
How much will iPhone cost with duties? The possible new prices
In the case of Applefor example, is assumed that the basic model ofiPhone 16now sold at a list price of 799 dollars in the United States, can overcome the 1.140 dollars. The top of the range of the current generation of Apple smartphones, or the 1 TB version of iPhone 16 Pro Maxcould rise from the current 1,599 to over 2,300 dollars. According to the provisions of analysts of Rosenblatt Securitiesin fact, if Apple will decide to transfer the effect of the duties to end consumers, theirs price will increase by 43%. Among the Apple products affected by the increases related to the duties imposed by Trump to the Asian countries from which the Cupertino company is supplied (where the production and assembly process of its devices also takes place), there are also Apple Watch (+43%), iPad (+42%), Mac (+39%) ed Airpods (+39%).
A real transformation of these products from daily use objects to luxury goods (or almost). The scenario, which is based on forecasts developed by financial analysts that estimate an impact on costs up to 40 billion Dollars for Apple, of course, will have effects on us final consumers only in case the company decides not to absorb additional costs internally. And to find themselves on the same boat of Apple there are other giants from the world tech, including Google, Microsoft and Nintendo, which are already evaluating strategic changes to deal with a global commercial scenario which, in the current state of affairs, has been completely redesigned by the tycoon.
The potential effects not only concern phones. According to the estimates, too Laptop prices, tablets and other Tech accessories could undergo between 15% and 20%. Devices such as laptops could easily go from $ 1,000 to 1,200 dollars, while gambling consoles, such as the Nintendo Switch 2have already been the subject of strategic evaluations: just think that the Japanese giant of video games has postponed the opening of the pre -orders to better understand the impact of the rates of 24% imposed on products from Japan.
Not to mention the sector of theartificial intelligencewhich risks a significant repercussions. There construction of large data centersor digital infrastructures where the AI models information is processed, it is based on hardware produced mainly in Asia. A increase in costs between 3% and 5% It might seem contained, but on investments that exceed 100 billion dollars – such as those planned by Microsoft, Google and Amazon – it translates into considerable figures and possible delays in the development of AI.
For the moment the semiconductors are safe
One of the few positive exceptions concerns the semiconductorsthat is, the microchips at the base of all modern electronics. The United States have decided for now not to apply duties on these components, which represents a relief for companies such as Nvidiawhich are supplied from Taiwanese TSMC. However, the possibility of a General tax of 10% on exportswhich could however indirectly affect this sector.
And let’s not forget that in all this, the response of the European Union should not be underestimated, which is preparing a countermeasure plan. In addition to possible duties, we speak of targeted taxes on the digital services of large American companies, such as Netflix, Amazon And Half. The risk is to enter a global protectionist spiral, where each country tries to defend its own interests, with the result of making technological products more expensive – and less accessible for all of us.
