When tensions in the Persian Gulf flare up and crude oil prices soar, the question arises: do Western countries have a plan B? Are there any “secret vaults” for emergencies? The answer is yes, they exist. They are called strategic reservesi.e. stocks of crude oil or refined petroleum derivatives held by consuming countries in the event of an energy crisis (like the one we are currently experiencing). But to understand if they can really “save us” we must distinguish between the numbers in the newspaper headlines and the technical reality of the taps.
What are strategic reserves and how many are there: the inventory pyramid
In recent days we have read that OECD countries (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Developmentthe international organization that brings together the most industrialized and democratic countries in the world) have in their belly approximately 8.2 billion barrels of oil. Considering that today in the world we consume around 105 million barrels per day, it is a large figure, but be careful not to get confused. We must make a difference between:
- Commercial stocks (the “base” of the pyramid). Most of those billions of barrels are “operating oil.” It is the crude oil that is already found in pipes, in the holds of traveling oil tankers or in refinery tanks. It serves to keep the economy going every day and cannot be used to cover an emergency without stopping industries.
- Strategic reserves (the “vertex” of the pyramid). The real “treasure” for energy crises is approximately 1.5-1.8 billion barrels. These are the stocks that member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) are obliged to keep by law, equal to at least 90 days of net imports.
On average, approximately 50% of these strategic reserves is managed directly by governments (like the famous Strategic Petroleum Reserve American), while the other half is in the hands of private individuals who are obliged not to touch them unless ordered by the State.
What are strategic reserves really for?
The logic of reserves is not to replace imports forever. AND buy time. They serve to give diplomats and the military the room to maneuver to resolve the crisis without the global economy collapsing in 48 hours.
The mechanism has already been tested: after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and during the recent tensions in 2026, the IEA coordinated extraordinary releases of millions of barrels per day. Did it work? Yes, it calmed the markets, but at a cost: reserves are emptied.
The real issue is psychological: if the Hormuz blockade lasted beyond 4-6 weeks, the markets would start calculating the day on which the reserves will run out. Result? The price of oil would still rise to 120-130 dollars a barrelregardless of how much oil is still in storage.
For Italy the problem is double: the question of natural gas
Here comes the critical point for us. The reservations we have talked about so far concern the petrolium. But Italy is a nation that “eats” above all natural gas.
The Qatar is one of our key partners: it provides approximately the 45% of our LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) which arrives by ship to the Rovigo regasifier. That gas must necessarily pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
The paradox is this: if Hormuz shuts down, we may have enough oil in stock to drive cars, but not enough gas to run power plants or industries at sustainable costs.
While oil moves with relative ease, gas depends on specific ships and regasifiers. If ships from Qatar are missing, it is not enough to “draw” from oil reserves to solve the electricity problem.
What would actually happen in the event of a prolonged blockade of Hormuz: the experts’ predictions
The analysts of think tank Bruegel and leading energy geopolitics experts agree on a timeline:
- Phase 1 (1-2 weeks). Prices plummet due to panic, but supplies are still regular thanks to the ships already on the move.
- Phase 2 (2-4 weeks). IEA coordinated intervention. The strategic taps are opened. The price stabilizes but remains high.
- Phase 3 (from 4 weeks onwards). If the blockade continues, strategic stockpiles begin to fall below warning levels. The economy enters “rationing” mode and energy costs become unaffordable for many businesses. The safety net is no longer an option.
Bottom line, the safety net exists and is robust, but it’s life insurance, not a never-ending paycheck. Strategic reserves protect us from short and violent shocks, but if global geopolitics were to permanently close a door like Hormuz, no reserve would be large enough to avoid a radical change in lifestyle.
