There is still high tension in oil markets due to the war in the Middle East and the conflict spreading to vital energy infrastructure. In the morning, Brent futures also exceeded 119 dollars a barrel, the highest level for over a week, to then settle at around 113 dollars (approximately +6%). The gap with American WTI crude, which remains stable at 95.75 dollars, has reached its widest point in over a decade, thanks to the massive release of strategic reserves by the United States.
Effects also on gas
The new surge in prices was triggered by air strikes against Iran’s South Pars field, the largest natural gas deposit in the world. By its own account, Tehran responded by striking several energy facilities in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. The price of gas in Europe, reference for the Dutch TTF future listed in Amsterdam, increased by more than 23% to 67.5 euros/Mwh, after Iranian attacks hit the largest liquefied natural gas production site in the world, Ras Laffan in Qatar. This site alone accounts for up to a fifth of global LNG supply.
Washington’s reaction
In a harsh social media post, President Donald Trump distanced himself from the initial Israeli attack but issued a definitive warning to Tehran:
“The US did not know about Israel’s attack on South Pars. Israel will not strike the field again, but if Iran continues its retaliation, the US will ‘massively blow up’ the entire area.”
Meanwhile, with the Strait of Hormuz largely closed by Iran, the Trump administration is reportedly considering sending thousands of troops to ensure the passage of oil tankers. According to rumors from Reuters, Washington is also considering the occupation of Kharg Island, the hub that manages 90% of Iranian oil output, already hit by American raids last week. Such a solution would force Iran to negotiate from a position of extreme weakness.
Inflation and inventories: markets ignore macro data
The rise in crude oil is overshadowing traditional economic data: prices are rising despite the strengthening dollar and the unexpected increase in weekly inventories in the US. Investors are now focused on the risk that high energy prices will push central banks, starting with the Federal Reserve and ECB, into a “hawkish” attitude, raising interest rates to counter a new wave of inflation.
