The luxury sector has undergone “hard shots” on the stock exchange and only recently mentioned a recovery movement, bringing closer to the best performance of the market. The S&P Global Luxury Index index highlights a return since the beginning of the year just over 8%, a more modest performance than the reference benchmark of the S&Pi stock market that marks a +12.5%. A dynamic that serves a real systemic crisis for large groups, with some exceptions, such as Brunello Cucinelli, which highlights “interesting” fundamental. The attention therefore shifts to the fundamentals, that is, on the turnover and on the general macroeconomic condition, which is currently particularly chaotic, due to the commercial duties, the weak dollar and of an inflationary dynamic that has strong uncertainties.
This is what emerges from an analysis of the luxury sector created by David Pascucci, Xtb market analyst, made on the occasion of the Milan Fashion Week, which takes into consideration big names in the sector such as Lvmh and Kering and the Italian Maison Brunello Cucinelli, the object in the last few days of an alleged “speculative attack”. Of course, the analysis does not exhaust the entire luxury sector, which also includes companies such as Ferrari (Automotive), L’Oreal (cosmetic) and Royal Caribbean (travel) and Hilton Holdings (Hotel and Hospitality).
Lvmh’s turnover does not shine
LVMH is back from some half -yearly reports that have not shone – underlines the analyst – especially considering that the last annual turnover ni growth was that of 2023, with 86.15 billion euros, while that of 2024 was falling at 84.68 billion euros. The last half -yearly showed a result below average: the turnover stood at 39.81 billion euros, which in projection would lead to a 2025 turnover down for the second consecutive year, forcing the French big to perform well within the next half -yearly release of 22 January 2026.
On the stock exchange, the technical situation seems to want to try a turning point, with a recovery from the minimums seen in June (+18%), but with a heavily negative performance by the maximums of 2023 (-50%). Talking about a recovery of the title is therefore premature, as the technical confirmations would only reach the consolidation of current levels as minimum of a bearish trend that has lasted for two years now.
And Kering does even worse
From a fundamental point of view Kering is bad above all considering the annual results that have seen a continuous descent since 2022: we start from a turnover of 20.35 billion euros of 2022 to 19.57 in 2023, up to 17.19 billion euros in 2024, equal to a contraction of over 10% in two years. The last half -yearly report that presents the continuation of this descent with a turnover of the first half of the year at 7.59 billion euros, which could make 2025 the worst year ever, is also bad.
From a technical point of view, the title seems to want to resume with a +17.8% rise since the beginning of the year, an excellent and a +80% compared to the minimum annual ones seen in April. Observing the long -term dynamics, the title has lost -80% from the maximums of 2021. The title is approaching the threshold of 300 euros per share, a level that could be a real technical barrier from which the goodness of this recovery could be tested.
Brunello Cucinelli is the best
Brunello Cucinelli presents the best fundamental situation compared to the two big names in the sector, benefited from a minor capitalization and a unique brand, unlike the two French holding. The turnover is constantly growing by 10% annual starting from 2022 with average margins of 9% in the last 3 years. The turnover on a semestral basis is also growing, a sign of the fact that the title is actually solid and without structural critical issues, but at the moment it is under close observation due to some items that support non -compliance with the sanctions to Russia.
If on the fundamental side we have excellent performances, from the stock exchange point of view, the situation is diametrically opposite. From the annual maximums the title lost over 40% going to test the minimums of 2024. On a weekly basis the situation is bad, with a strong downward acceleration due to a reduction of 17.3% in a single day due to the items on trade with Russia. This technical dynamic is not good and could open the doors to an even more lasting reduction if we do not see reactions between area 70-80 euros per action, technically valid levels for long-term support.
