A negative week ends for the securities of the real estate sector, listed in Piazza Affari and, in Europe, with the attention of investors once again focused on the central banks that move rates with effects on the sector. The employees did not welcome the resilience of the US economy well. The leap of GDP, in fact, did not deposit in favor of the reduction of interest rates on which investors took so much, after the first cut of the year decided in the September meeting.
“Stop and Go” of the US economy
The data from the American economy that have thrown greater uncertainty about the possibility of further cuts, before the end of the year, put the theme of monetary policy in the foreground. The labor market shows slowdown signs, but the internal demand remains resilient. Considering that inflation remains above the target, the data make the hypothesis of significant cuts to interest rates in the coming months less likely, underlines Richard Flax, Chief Investment Officer of Moneyfarm.
In the second quarter of the year, the new reading of the US GDP stood at +3.8%, well over 3.3% expected by analysts and against the contraction of 0.5% in the first quarter. At the same time, the PCE Core, an important indicator for the FED, stood at 2.6%, under a reduction from previous 3.5%, but less than estimated by analysts (+2.5%).
Powell reports growing economic risks
The governor of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell warned: too aggressive cuts in interest rates could push inflation to the rise.
The banker said, in fact, that the American central bank must find a balance between inflationary concerns and the weakening of the labor market in its next decisions on interest rates, without providing any signal on the timing or on the entity of potential cuts. “If we cut too aggressively, we could leave the work on inflation unfinished and have to reverse the course later,” said Powell, noting that on the other side “if we keep a restrictive policy for too long, the labor market could weaken unnecessarily”. The governor stressed that the risks downward for employment have risen and recent increases in prices reflect the duties. “Recent data show that the rhythm of economic growth is slowed down. The unemployment rate is low, but it has slightly increased. The increase in employment is slowed down and the risks for the reduction for employment have increased.” In recent months, it has become clear that the balance of risks has moved, pushing us to adopt an economic policy orientation closer to neutrality in the meeting last week, “said the president.”
The trend of the sector on the stock exchange
The real estate sector on the Milanese square closed the octave down with the FTSE Italia Al All Share Real Estate index which takes home a descent of over 2%. The drop in the trend of the sector, at European level, with the Stoxx 600 Real Estate index that loses 0.5%.
Real estate securities listed in Milan
Among the real estate companies listed in Piazza Affari, living in 4%yield, followed by Next Re and IGD both downhill of 3%. Down 0.9% restoration. Brioschi and Aedes uphill, respectively, of 3% and 2%, should be reported among the raises. Also well, Gabetti who earns 0.9%.
Macroeconomic data
The sale of new houses in the United States rebounds in August. The data communicated by the census Bureau highlighted an increase of 20.5% to 800 thousand units compared to the 664 thousand July units, when there was a decrease of 1.8%. The expectations of analysts were for a decrease up to 650 thousand units.
Negative signals come, however, from the sale of existing houses which recorded a 0.2% decrease in August on a monthly basis after the previous +2%, according to what was detected by the National Association of Real Estate Agents (NAR). “The sales of houses have been stagnant in recent years due to the high rates of mortgages and limited stocks – said Lawrence Yun, the economist’s chief economist of the Nar – however, mortgages are decreasing and more stocks are coming to the market, which should increase sales in the coming months”. “Record real estate wealth and a stock market to the historic maximums will help the current owners of houses to go up in the category, to the advantage of the high end of the market. However, the sales of houses at affordable prices are limited by the lack of stocks – added Yun – the Midwest was the region with the best performances last month, mainly thanks to relatively convenient market conditions. The median price of the houses in the Midwest is 22% lower than 22% lower than 22% national median price “.
In the week to 19 September, mortgage questions in the United States slightly climb. The index that measures the volume of mortgage loan applications records an increase of 0.6%, after the +29.7% recorded the previous week. The index relating to refinancing requests increased by 0.8%, while that relating to the new questions has grown by 0.3%. The Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) indicated that thirty -year mortgages rates dropped to 6.34% from 6.39% previous.
Sector studies
From the data collected by the agencies of the Tecnocasa group in 2024, 7.9% of the leases entered into in Italy affected university students, a percentage that rises to 13.9% in large cities, with peaks of 22% in Turin followed by Milan with 18.5%.
“Our network – says Fabiana Megliola, Head of Office Studies Tecnocasa – in 2025 notes that, in some cities, the excess of properties on the receptive tourist segment with consequent reduction of marginality, is leading the owners to return to traditional rents, often choosing students as a type of tenants. Even the investors seem more interested in focusing on this target. 2025, have seen the percentage of rents to students grow are Rome and Turin “.
