Difficult week for stock markets after the attack by Israel and the United States on Iran and fears over energy prices. The conflict in the Middle East has escalated into all-out war in less than a week. President Donald Trump, claiming the strategy of suffocating the Iranian threat, declared that he is aiming for Tehran’s “unconditional surrender”, warning that military operations could last much longer than the 4-5 weeks initially expected. The war instability, which culminated with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by the Pasdaran and the blockade of the Dubai and Doha hubs, paralyzed the transit of a fifth of the world’s crude oil. Qatar’s energy minister has issued a dramatic warning: if hostilities do not cease immediately, all Gulf exporters will be forced to stop production, a scenario that would collapse the global economy and push oil up to $150 a barrel.
Energy prices on the rise
Iranian retaliation and blockade of shipping routes triggered a wave of frenzied buying in energy markets. On Friday alone, Brent jumped 6.6% to above 91 dollars, while WTI gained 9.5% to settle at 88.72 dollars. Since the beginning of the conflict, prices have grown by more than 20%. Not just oil: European natural gas futures jumped by 50% after QatarEnergy declared a “force majeure”, suspending LNG production following attacks on its plants. While the defense and energy sectors record vertical increases, the travel and aviation sector is experiencing its toughest test since the pandemic, with record losses for giants such as Lufthansa and American Airlines due to the closure of regional airspace.
Unexpected slowdown in the US labor market
In this climate of extreme tension, US macroeconomic data has added further uncertainty. The February jobs report showed an unexpected loss of 92,000 jobs, sharply reversing the previous month’s robust trend and bringing the unemployment rate to 4.4%. Although weekly claims remained steady at 213,000, the overall nonfarm payrolls figure negatively surprised analysts. Weak signals from the labor market could ease pressure on government bond yields and push the Federal Reserve in a more accommodative direction, despite the inflationary pressures resulting from high energy prices that continue to threaten global stability.
Today’s session in Milan
Piazza Affari closed in the red again today, in line with the main European stock exchanges: the negative performance of Frankfurt stands out, which fell by 0.94%, London fell by 1.24%, and a moderate contraction for Paris, which suffered a drop of 0.65%. A “bad” day for the Italian stock exchange, down 1.02% on the FTSE MIB; along the same lines, the FTSE Italia All-Share loses ground, stopping at 46,667 points, retracing by 0.98%. The FTSE Italia Mid Cap fell slightly (-0.36%); The FTSE Italia Star consolidates its previous levels (+0.19%).
Among the best performers in Milan, Leonardo (+3.39%), Fincantieri (+2.59%), ENI (+1.51%) and Lottomatica (+1.14%) stand out. The strongest declines, however, occurred on STMicroelectronics, which closed the session at -5.06%. BPER Banca was heavy, marking a decline of -3.8 percentage points. Sharp decline for Buzzi, which marks -3.28%. Banca Popolare di Sondrio is under pressure, with a sharp decline of 3.26%. At the top among mid-cap Italian shares, Avio (+7.99%) and Reply (+5.18%).
