A negative week ends for real estate indices. Increases in energy prices are weighing on investor sentiment, fueling fears of inflationary pressures and raising questions about the next moves of central banks. Decisions that directly influence the cost of credit and, consequently, demand in the real estate market.
ECB, Kazimir: rate increase closer with war
The war in Iran and its impact on inflation risk forcing the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates sooner than expected, Peter Kazimir, governor of the National Bank of Slovakia and member of the ECB’s governing council, warned in an interview with Bloomberg. For the moment, we need to remain calm”, although “I would say that a reaction from the ECB is potentially closer than many think”. “I don’t want to speculate on April or June – he added – But we will be ready to act if necessary”. Kazimir had said he was dissatisfied with the situation even before the events in Iran, with prices of services proving rigid, costs of goods not falling quickly enough and profit margins rising. Now he is even more worried: “The balance of relative risks inflation has clearly moved upwards. We can forget all the discussions about inflation below the limit.” “Companies still remember the years of inflation and are likely to pass on higher costs to consumers much faster than in 2022 – said the central banker – And people will demand higher wages faster than in the past.” “We can respond more quickly if necessary – underlined – Kazimir – We need to be agile. We also learned the lesson.”
Fed, BofA: caution on rates, inflation remains above the 2% target
Bank of America analysts warned that the Federal Reserve should be in no rush to cut interest rates further despite Wednesday’s subdued consumer inflation (CPI) data. According to the investment bank’s report, projections for the core PCE index — the Fed’s preferred indicator for measuring inflation — suggest a value of 3.1% on an annual basis for the month of February. BofA estimates that approximately 80 basis points of this figure is due to the impact of customs duties. While there has been positive progress in real estate disinflation over the past year, analysts point out that the rest of the basket remains stuck in a price range above levels consistent with the 2% target. According to Bank of America, the Fed “still has some work to do” to bring inflation under stable control before proceeding with a new easing of monetary policy.
The performance of the sector on the stock exchange
The real estate sector in the Milanese square closed the eighth in negative territory with the FTSE Italia All Share Real Estate index falling by 0.7%. The sector’s performance is worse at a European level, with the Stoxx 600 Real Estate index losing 2%.
Among the real estate companies listed on Piazza Affari, Risanamento lost over 3% while Abitare IN fell by 4%. Gabetti slips by 3.5%. IGD declines around 1%. Brioschi ends up 3.2%. Aedes rises by 2.6%.
Macroeconomic data
Mortgage applications are increasing in the United States. In the week to March 6, the index measuring the volume of mortgage loan applications recorded an increase of 3.2%, after the +11% recorded the previous week. The index relating to refinancing requests grew by 0.5%, while that relating to new applications rose by 7.8%. The Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA), indicated that rates on 30-year mortgages rose to 6.19% from 6.09% previously.
Sector studies
The market continues to grow, supported by low rates and demand from young people. Kìron Partner, Tecnocasa Group, analyzed the Bank of Italy data relating to the stock of outstanding mortgages granted to Italian families for the purchase of a home and still in progress, in the third quarter of 2025 we stand at 391 billion euros with an increase of +0.84% compared to the second quarter of 2025. If the comparison were made on an annual basis (III quarter 2025 on III quarter 2024) the active stock working capital of mortgages to families for the purchase of a home would increase by +3.6%. The growth in amounts in the period under analysis is undoubtedly linked to the fact that new mortgage operations increased in the first nine months of 2025, compared to the same period of the previous year, by 32.8%, declares Oscar Cosentini, President of Kìron Partner. The continuous growth is supported both by the decline in interest rates (compared to the highs recorded in 2023) which led to the increase in demand, and by the demand of young borrowers, encouraged by the renewal of state guarantees which made access to credit for the purchase of their first home easier for them.
