Starting Wednesday morning November 27 2024 Israel and the Lebanese organization Hezbollah they accepted a cease fire immediatelyalso achieved through the mediation from the United States of Americaafter more than a year of conflict. According to the latest updates, thetruce agreement (in theory we should speak more correctly of “accommodation”) was approved with only one vote against by the Israeli government, chaired by Benjamin Netanyahu, and provides for the withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon and the deployment of the official Lebanese Army and forces of peacekeeping of the UN (many of them Italian) south of Litani riverabout 30 km away between the two countries. Hezbollah, in turn, will have to move its militias north of the waterway. In fact, the truce re-proposes the text of UN Resolution 1701 of 2006 (which put an end to another Israeli military invasion of southern Lebanon) and will be supervised, among others, by the USA and France; its duration will depend on compliance with the conditions by the different contractors.
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The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, which has become increasingly high intensity since October 7, 2023after the attack of Hamas to Israel, caused approx 3,800 deaths in Lebanon and forced over a million people to leave their homes in both Lebanon and Israel. The Jewish state, which has intensified attacks in recent weeks, has inflicted heavy losses on Hezbollah, including death of leader Hassan Nasrallahand claimed to have achieved its goals in the area.
The US president Biden he called the ceasefire a step towards permanent peace while Netanyahu reiterated that Israel will regain the military initiative if Hezbollah violates the agreement. Furthermore, among the reasons for the truce, the Israeli prime minister indicated the need to concentrate its forces on Hamas And Iran and the need to reorganize the army.
Despite the hopes that the area will return to stability, many geopolitical analysts have serious doubts on the effective implementation of the agreement and its maintenance. One of the most complex issues, for example, concerns the capacity of the Lebanese government and army to control the actions of Hezbollah. Not only that: also inside Israel they were not missed criticisms severe with respect to the truce. In fact, various far-right political exponents consider it a serious strategic error.
