As the US President announced Donald Trump During his January speech to World Economic Forum of Davos, also the member countries of theEuropean Union will soon be affected by rates on products “made in Europe“, Like wine and champagne, in response to the EU rates on American whiskey. This commercial war could damage European exports, in particular the Italian one, which is worth about 66.4 billion euros per year. From 12 March 2025 duties have already been introduced steel And aluminum. Recently, Canada, Mexico and China have also been affected by the new announced, threatened, suspended and then reconfirmed duties by the United States.
Trump’s first US-EU duties
The official excuse is always Balanceing the United States commercial scale With the rest of the world: at the moment, in fact, the country matters about 1100 billion dollars of goods more than those that exports (290 billion from China and almost 230 from the European Union). From Wednesday 12 March they have therefore taken 25% duties on the steel and aluminum that the United States import from the EU: Unlike Trump’s first mandate between 2016 and 2020, this time the sanctions also apply to a long list of European products produced with these two materials. The reaction of the European Union arrived closely, which on the same day has already announced duties on US goods for a value of 26 billion euros per year: from April 1st those on specific products such as jeans and Harley-Davidson motorcycles will start for a value of 8 billion euros, while from mid-April a second tranche of duties will start on industrial, agricultural and breeding products for a total of over 18 billion euros in goods. The threat of Donald Trump arrived on Thursday 13 March, than on his Social Network Truth He wrote that if the European duties remain in force, the import in the United States of Champagne, wine And French alcohol and other European manufacturers with duties of 200%.
The consequences of Trump’s duties on Italy
In this crossed fire of announcements and threats, Italy also prepares for the consequences of a commercial war of the European Union with the United States. An event that for an exporting country like ours is very worrying. The United States, in fact, are the Third market for Italian exports after Germany and France, for an annual value that in 2024 was 66.4 billion euros. Above all Lombardy, Emilia Romagna and Tuscany benefits from this, but in general all the regions involved in agri -food, fashion and pharmaceutical induced. Despite the caution of the Italian government to gain weight Donald Trump, many are already preparing to manage the repercussions of the US duties, which according to an estimate of the Svimez (Association for the development of the South Industry) could do lose between 27 and 54 thousand jobs and cause a contraction of GDP between 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points.
The possible damage to agri -food
A sector particularly attentive to what is happening is agri -food, which among the major responsible for the success of Italian exports. The one towards the United States exceeded 7.8 billion euros per year in 2024, with constant growth that has been continuing for decades and only partially stopped during the Covid pandemic. According to Coldiretti’s estimates, a duty set at 25% it could have repercussions on US consumers of approximately 2 billion eurosfavoring alternative choices and the spread of imitations, especially for the products of the mid -range. The forecasts speak of losses for the olive oil sector of 240 million, 170 for pasta and 120 for the dairy. Even worse it would go for the sector of Wine and sparkling wineswhich could lose up to 400 million euros per year. The precedents do not bode well, given that as the president of Federvini Micaela Pallini said “the sector of Italian liqueurs and cordials has already undergone, between 2019 and 2021, the disruptive effects of American duties”, with a loss of value that reached 40%.
An existential threat to the Italian industry
There is not only the agri -food among the sectors that could suffer serious repercussions from the US duties. According to the analyzes of Confindustria, also the automotive sector, pharmaceutical, fashion, that of industrial machinery, footwear and leather goods will undergo serious repercussions. This also because The Italian industry is still very close to the US marketmuch more than the average of other European countries. Unfortunately, it is not easy to quantify the economic and employment reinforcement of the sector, also for the volubability in the communication of the Trump administration, but the concern of the industrial sector is tangible. The president of Federlegnoarredo Claudio Feltrin was drastic in his recent declaration, claiming that “decisions come from President Trump who, if applied, would put Within 24 hours on their knees, companies, workers and cascade the whole Italian economy». Even more categorical was the vice -president of Confindustria Lucia Aleotti, so this commercial war could be the “Italian industry” Italian industry.
