The spread week begins with a decline, with a reduction to 80 basis points for the spread between BTPs and German Bunds. Yields are also falling, at a time of suspense for financial markets. The war in Iran continues to create uncertainty and Trump’s attempts to unblock the Strait of Hormuz are finding no success.
The week starting on Monday 16 March will also be the one in which central banks around the world will meet their respective councils for the first time since the beginning of the conflict in the Middle East. The decision on rates everywhere should be to keep the cost of money stable, but monetary tightening cannot be ruled out in the future.
Spread between BTPs and Bunds falling to 80 points, expectations for central banks
The reduction in the spread is entirely due to a drop in the yields of the 10-year benchmark BTPs. The average interest paid by the State on these securities went from 3.81% to 3.77%, while that of the German equivalents remained stable at the 3% threshold.
Despite this, the spread continues to increase significantly in the short term. In the last month it increased by 30.75%, while since the beginning of 2026 the growth is 23.83%. The medium and long-term trends are still positive, with the six-month variation at -0.64% and the one-year variation at -24.39%.
However, these data could change significantly between Wednesday and Thursday, when the world’s major central banks will make their first monetary policy decisions since the start of the war in Iran. Analysts expect stability, but the words of the directors in the press conferences following the board meetings could direct the near future towards an increase in rates and, therefore, interest on government bonds.
Spain and France are struggling to recover after the election weekend
The reduction in the spread that affected Italian securities was not replicated by their Spanish equivalents. The election weekend, as voting took place in Castile Leon, made the markets less favourable, despite the main government party achieving a good result. The Spanish spread remained at 51 points, with the Bonos yielding 3.48%.
| Government bonds | Returns | Spreads |
| German Bunds | 2.97% | – |
| Italian BTPs | 3.77% | 81 |
| French Oats | 3.96% | 69 |
| Spanish bonos | 3.48% | 51 |
The same can be said for France, which however experienced a more turbulent electoral weekend, with the first round of many local elections showing an advance for the radical parties, both right and left, to the detriment of the moderate ones who support the national government. The spread between Oat and Bund remained at 69 points, with yields at 3.66%.
The next auctions of Italian government bonds
At the end of this week, the end-of-month auctions of Italian government bonds will begin. Last week saw another successful issue take place, with €6 billion raised by the Treasury through various medium and long-term BTPs. The dates of the next auctions are:
- on March 25th for the Btp Short – Btp€i auction;
- March 26 for the Bots auction;
- March 27 for the auction of medium-long term BTPs;
- on April 9th for the Bot auction;
- on April 10th for the auction of medium-long term BTPs.
