The spread between Italian BTPs and German Bunds has gained more than 20 points in a week. The instability brought about by the war in the Middle East, which among other things has caused the price of oil to reach 115 dollars a barrel, is putting pressure on Italian government bonds. The differential with the German counterparts reached 86 basis points at the opening.
This peak in yields comes at a delicate moment for the Treasury, already forced to update the interest on BTP Valore, whose auction ended on Friday 6 March. Starting from Wednesday 11 March the new regular monthly auctions will begin, which could be heavily affected by the increasing spread.
Btp-Bund spread at 86 points, record since September
The first opening of the week was particularly unstable for Italian government bonds. Yields, which had already closed sharply higher on Friday 6 March, reached 3.77% in the first hours after the start of trading, with a spread that reached 86 basis points on equivalent German bonds.
Not only is this peak the highest level reached by the spread in all of 2026, but it effectively canceled out all the progress that the 10-year benchmark BTPs had made in the last 6 months to move closer to the Bunds. The only positive comparison remains that of March 2025, when the spread was clearly growing towards the April peak.
Bunds also suffered a sharp increase in yields, which reached 2.92%. However, this is a limited growth compared to that of BTPs, demonstrating the fact that the role of German securities as a safe haven, although weakened by the new spending policies of the Berlin government, has not completely disappeared.
The titles of Spain and France suffer
The Spanish Bonos also quickly fell into trouble due to the war in the Middle East. Spanish Prime Minister Sánchez’s opposition to Trump did not help in this situation, but Spanish bonds still limited the increase in yields compared to BTPs. Bonos now have a yield of 3.46%, with a spread of 54 points.
| Government bonds | Returns | Spreads |
| German Bunds | 2.92% | – |
| Italian BTPs | 3.77% | 86 |
| French Oats | 3.63% | 71 |
| Spanish bonos | 3.46% | 54 |
The French Oats also manage to defend themselves, limiting yields to 3.63% and consequently the spread to 71 basis points. Compared to the main European countries, Italy pays the historic public debt, but also the less positive than expected economic data released by Istat.
BTPs issued with a value of over 16 billion, new auctions begin
The issuance of Btp Valore, dedicated to the retail market, concluded on Friday 6 March. The uncertain trend of the spread throughout last week led the Treasury to recalculate the real yields, which had been anticipated on February 28th:
- 2.60% for the first and second year;
- 3.20% for the third and fourth year;
- 3.80% for the fifth and sixth year.
The Ministry of Economy and Finance registered more than 520 thousand contracts, which brought 16.2 billion euros into state coffers. Regular auctions will begin again starting this week, with the first one taking place on March 11th. The complete calendar for this month includes:
- the Bots auction on March 11th;
- the auction of medium-long term BTPs on 12 March;
- the auction of Btp Short – Btp€i on 25 March;
- the Bots auction on March 26;
- the auction of medium-long term BTPs will take place on 27 March.
