The closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered the most severe oil supply disruption in history: the overall transit of crude oil, liquefied natural gas and refined products through this maritime hub plummeted 73% compared to pre-conflict levels, with exports of crude oil alone falling by 88%. Also for this reason, the countries that import the most oil (especially Asian and European) are turning to alternative exporters such as the United States, which in April recorded a historic record of 5.2 million barrels exported per day, selling more than 250 million barrels of oil in the last 2 months.
These levels, however, will not be sustainable in the long term for the USA: the causes are linked to the limits of port infrastructure, but also to the very characteristics of American crude oil which, unlike Middle Eastern crude, is “light”, not very dense and unsuitable for Asian refineries, accustomed to processing a type of “heavy” crude oil such as that sold by the Gulf countries.
Meanwhile, after the United Arab Emirates officially left OPEC, the seven countries that make up OPEC+ approved an increase in production of 188,000 barrels per day, with the aim of calming oil prices.
IEA data on the collapse of oil traffic in the Strait of Hormuz
As also confirmed in the April 2026 report released by the IEA (International Energy Agency), the closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused the most serious interruption of oil supply in history. By early April, the volume of crude oil, liquefied natural gas and other refined products (such as jet fuel) transiting the Strait had shrunk to just 3.8 million barrels per day. To be clear, in February 2026 (before the outbreak of the war), over 20 million barrels per day passed through Hormuz (-73.2%).
Looking only at crude oil, exports through this maritime hub have plummeted from 14.2 million barrels per day to just 1.9 million barrels per day – a drop of around 86.6%.
The collapse in production is even clearer if we compare regional oil production with last year: in the second quarter of 2025, the Middle East produced an average of 30.9 million barrels per day. In the second quarter of 2026, the figure is approximately 22.1 million barrels per day. This is 8.8 million fewer barrels per day, or 28.5% less oil produced every day.
Faced with this crisis, Gulf countries are attempting to circumvent the blockade by using alternative routes: Saudi Arabia, for example, has doubled shipments through its East-West Crude Oil Pipeline, exporting around 4.4 million barrels per day through the Red Sea. The United Arab Emirates, however, has strengthened the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline – which extends from the emirate of Abu Dhabi to the port of Fujairah, located in the Gulf of Oman – reaching a production of 1.6 million barrels per day.
Finally, Iraq is trying to get its crude oil through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline to Turkey. Overall, Gulf exports through alternative routes have risen to 7.2 million barrels a day, up from about 4 million before the war, according to the IEA. But the net loss is still enormous: over 13 million barrels per day less exports, with cumulative losses estimated by the IEA at over 360 million barrels in March alone and 440 million estimated for April.
Globally, reserves in countries outside the Persian Gulf fell by a combined 205 million barrels. In response to the crisis, in fact, the IEA coordinated the largest release of strategic reserves in history: 400 million barrels made available by 32 member countries.
Meanwhile, the Agency estimated that global oil demand will contract by 80,000 barrels per day this year compared to 2025 levels (the sharpest decline since the Covid-19 pandemic years), with an expected decline of 1.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026 alone.
US crude oil exports have reached a record high, but there are structural limits
The alternative routes to the Strait of Hormuz, however, are not sufficient to restore oil supplies to pre-war levels: this is why importing countries, especially Asian and European ones, are redirecting themselves towards other exporters, such as the United States, which in April reached a record level of crude oil exports, equal to 5.2 million barrels per day.
The Port of Corpus Christi, Texas, has become the largest oil export terminal in the world, recording the busiest first quarter in its history: ship traffic in Corpus Christi reached more than 240 ships, compared to the 200 the port normally sees in a month.
The data is impressive: American crude oil exports rose from 3.9 million barrels per day in February to 5.2 million in April, an increase of more than 33% in just two months. In total, the US has sold more than 250 million barrels of oil to foreign countries in the last two months: total exports of oil and refined products hit a record of around 12.9 million barrels per day, with jet fuel recording a 78% increase year-on-year.
Exports to Asia especially exploded, in fact the continent that depends most on oil transiting from Hormuz: according to estimates reported by Kpler, an increase is expected from 2.27 million barrels per day in April to 3.29 million in May.
It must be said, however, that this surge will not be sustainable in the long term due to important structural limitations. First of all, American crude oil (which is a “light” oil because it is not very dense and viscous) is not a perfect substitute for the “heavy” crude oil extracted in the Middle East and many Asian refineries are designed to process only the latter.
At the same time, the problem remains of American port infrastructure, which is starting to show signs of overload: the costs for transferring cargo between oil tankers in the open sea have increased up to 10 times in recent weeks, while the availability of ships in the area has reduced by 41%.
According to analysts, American exports are unlikely to be able to consistently exceed 6 million barrels per day with the current infrastructure: the theoretical capacity of the terminals in the Gulf of Mexico, in fact, is around 7.1 million barrels per day, but the logistical infrastructures limit the real volumes. The other risk is domestic: the export boom could end up emptying American stocks, further pushing up petrol prices for US consumers, which have already risen by 31% since the start of the conflict.
