After days of instability, the spread between Italian BTPs and German Bunds remained stable at 83 basis points in the first minutes after the opening on September 4th, thanks to decreasing yields compared to those of yesterday.
The positive data, both from the Italian PMI indices, expected by the markets, and above all from the German GDP, helped. Germany should return to growth at a rapid pace starting this year, with gross domestic product growth of 1.4%. Good news also for Italy, which has one of the main outlets for its companies in the German market.
Spreads and yields stable for the first time in days
After the almost uncontrolled growth of ten-year BTP yields and the constant increase in the spread over the last week and after yesterday’s reversal of direction, the differential between Italian and German bonds found a day of stability. The opening on September 4th is effectively identical to that of the previous day for Italian securities, with the spread at 83 basis points, while yields dropped slightly to 4.18%.
The locomotive starts again
A factor that has favored this stability is the economic data published yesterday, in particular those relating to Germany’s GDP. After years of stagnation, with the risk of technical recession, the country seems to be moving towards a solid economic recovery. The Ifo, the main index for business confidence, has published its estimates of the growth of German gross domestic product, estimating it at 1.4% for 2026.
Previous estimates spoke of +0.8%. The prospects also seem significantly improved for 2027, with growth estimated at +1.2%, against the 0.4% expected. The German economy is the largest in Europe and its improvement could also help other countries, including Italy, to grow more rapidly. For this reason these data help stabilize government bond markets.
Spreads falling in Spain and France
The good economic news also caused the spread to fall for Spanish Bonos, among the most stable securities in recent months. The spread increased to 44 basis points.
| Government bonds | Returns | Spreads |
|---|---|---|
| German Bunds | 3.35% | – |
| Italian BTPs | 4.18% | 83 |
| French Oats | 4.21% | 86 |
| Spanish bonos | 3.79% | 44 |
Even France, which has been in difficulty for months and considered one of the countries at risk of a debt crisis, saw the spread of its Oat reduce, which dropped to 86 basis points.
The next government bond auctions in September
Auctions for government bonds will open in the second week of September, starting with the BOT auction. Opportunities to invest in Italian public debt will continue throughout the month. The dates to note are:
- September 9th for the Bot auction;
- September 10 for the auction of medium and long-term bonds;
- on 24 September for the auction of Btp Short and Btp€i;
- September 25th for the Bot auction;
- on 26 September for the auction of medium and long-term bonds.
