The high energy costs risk weighing on the Italian economy in 2027, with an estimated impact of around 250 euros per family. The alarm is raised by Confcommercio, which outlines a worsening scenario as early as next year if oil prices remain high.
The cost of crude oil, in fact, is one of the variables that can most influence family consumption and inflation, because its increase is transmitted directly or indirectly to numerous goods and services.
Inflation and purchasing power: 2027 forecasts
According to the Confcommercio research office, in the case of a new energy shock – assuming a stabilization of the price of Brent at 140 dollars a barrel compared to the current 100 dollars – inflation in 2027 would rise to an average of 3.7% per year, driven in particular by forced consumption (energy and primary goods) estimated at 5.9%. This scenario would result in a reduction in real consumption of 0.5 percentage points, quantifiable as around 250 euros less per family (for a total of around 6.5 billion euros).
Consequentially:
- the incidence of obligatory expenses on the total would reach a record 42.9%;
- GDP growth would slow down, stopping at 0.6%, losing another 0.3 percentage points.
The effect would therefore follow a precise chain: more expensive energy, higher inflation, lower purchasing power, reduction in consumption and, finally, weaker growth.
In the most critical scenario:
- inflation relating to forced consumption would reach 5.9%;
- that referring to free consumption would stop at 2.3%.
The impact on businesses: the sectors most affected
According to estimates, in the second half of 2026 the increased cost of electricity could overall exceed one billion euros for commerce, restaurants, hotels, bars and large-scale retail trade. This increase is distributed between:
- 494 million euros paid by shops;
- 207 million euros for restaurants;
- 164 million euros for hotels;
- 111 million euros for bars;
- 50 million euros for large-scale organized distribution (large-scale distribution).
What Italy risks
If the shock were to be prolonged, the risk highlighted by Confcommercio is that of entering a new phase in which inflation returns to compress purchasing power while growth remains weak. Italy would therefore risk an economic slowdown.
With the rise in prices and energy, every household will find itself forced to cut its actual purchases (goods and services). On an overall level, a reduction in spending equal to 250 euros per family would translate into a loss of approximately 6.5 billion euros for the entire national economy.
The situation today
The situation today is characterized by tensions already evident on the international raw materials markets, with the price of methane on the European market rising sharply compared to the previous year and an increase in oil prices since the beginning of the year. At a national level, Istat data confirm inflation at 3.3% on an annual basis, driven markedly by the recovery of energy goods.
This dynamic is part of a structural context in which Italy has a gap in the cost of electricity compared to its main European partners (up to almost 70 euros more per MWh compared to countries such as Germany, Spain and France). And this gap mainly derives from an energy mix still heavily dependent on gas and from a component of charges and taxes which, unlike what has happened in other European Union states, has recorded significant growth in recent years.
Consequently, the productive fabric – which includes trade, tourism and catering – is already facing an increase in operating costs, in particular for the electricity bill, exacerbated by consumption linked to air conditioning in the summer months. If the situation were to worsen, as hypothesized, Italian businesses and families would already find themselves at a disadvantage, such that they would probably not be able to respond promptly to a prolonged crisis.
