The Italian economy continues to grow, but does so at a very limited pace. However, to better understand what is happening, we need to analyze the numbers better. According to the Istat report published on 5 October 2026, in fact, the positive dynamic is supported above all by family consumption and services. Meanwhile, we continue to deal with the weakness of the industry and a negative contribution from net foreign demand.
These different trends, which to many may seem unrelated, could actually have consequences on wages, employment and competitiveness.
Data on Italian GDP in the second quarter of 2026
As emerged from the Istat analysis of Italian economic accounts, in the second quarter of 2026 the Italian gross domestic product increased by 0.2% compared to the previous quarter. Compared to the second quarter of 2025, however, growth was 1% in one year.
The new estimate from the Institute of Statistics confirms what was already revealed in September 2026, when the forecasts spoke of cyclical growth of 0.2% and trend growth of 1%. In the same October document, however, data relating to the so-called acquired growth of Italian GDP were also reported, which currently stands at 0.8%. This percentage does not represent a certain forecast of how the year will end, but indicates the final result that would be obtained if the economy remained like this, at a standstill, in the coming months.
To be able to do better and exceed this figure by the end of 2026, it will be essential that the economy continues to advance in the second half of the year. Otherwise, growth will be slow (while in the worst case scenario – if the numbers worsen – we will see a relegation).
What contributes to growth
To understand where this growth comes from, it is necessary to look at domestic demand. In fact, in the second quarter of 2026, compared to the first three months of the year, national final consumption increased by 0.2%. Part of the GDP growth is therefore attributable to household spending, which represents one of the main drivers.
Gross fixed investments (i.e. purchases made by businesses and the State for goods intended to last over time, such as machinery, plants, buildings and infrastructure) also grew by 0.2%. However, according to Istat, although they were increasing, they did not represent the main element underlying the positive contribution of national demand. Taking into account inventories in warehouses (+0.1%), companies have produced more goods than they have sold, or have stocks of raw materials and goods not yet distributed.
This accumulation of goods acted as a buffer, but in fact but in fact indicates that production has gone beyond the real market demand. Furthermore, inventories in warehouses will have to be absorbed in the coming months, leaving domestic consumption alone with the task of supporting growth while waiting for a relaunch of investments and exports.
Imports and exports compared
On the foreign trade front, from April to June 2026, compared to the previous quarter:
- imports increased by 1.5%;
- exports grew by 1%.
Export growth is therefore positive for the Italian economy, but in the second quarter the increase in imports was more marked and the overall balance of net foreign demand (-0.1 percentage points) ended up weighing slightly on the growth of gross domestic product.
The sectors in the worst position (and those in the best position)
Observing which sectors produced added value in the period monitored by the Institute, the service sector, whose added value increased by 0.4%, supported the result above all.
However, the added value of agriculture, forestry and fishing decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous quarter, while the decline in industry was even more marked, equal to 0.6%.
What do you risk?
Even if household consumption (i.e. citizens’ daily expenses) and the service sector (such as tourism, trade and business services) are showing a positive trend and keeping the economy in positive territory, with industry going through this phase of production weakness and foreign demand in negative, exports to other countries are unable to compensate for the level of imports.
Furthermore, despite the stability of consumption, the slowness of general growth limits the ability of companies to invest in wage increases. This risks:
- erode purchasing power in the medium term, especially in the presence of inflationary pressures on basic goods;
- increase the mismatch between job supply and demand, making it even more difficult for companies to find staff.
The weakness of the industrial sector can therefore lead to:
- to a greater use of social safety nets (such as redundancy payments) and a consequent greater expenditure for the state;
- to hiring freezes or staff reductions in the most exposed supply chains.
This scenario could in turn trigger a chain effect, where the government’s ability to finance public spending interventions, reduce the tax burden or flexibly manage public debt will be increasingly reduced.
