The Italian banking sector finds itself on the threshold of an inevitable structural transformation, driven by a strong acceleration in the consolidation process – the so-called Risk – which has undergone a surge starting from 2025.
According to an analysis by S&P Global Ratings, the national panorama is destined to be radically redesigned, arriving at a final configuration composed of a small number of large players, supported by a few smaller companies but characterized by highly agile business models. However, yesalthough the direction of this evolution now appears clear and predictable, the speed and methods with which it will be accomplished will strictly depend on the share balances, the strategies of the individual institutions and the political-institutional role of the government and the supervisory authorities.
The size scale and the defense of profitability
The S&P analysts’ judgment is based on a clear reading of the competitive dynamics. Although Italian banks have recently recorded very solid profitability performances, the rating agency believes that increasing size and operational scale is the only element to preserve future returns and manage future challenges. There are mainly two drivers that push towards growth through M&A: the ininvestments in digitalisation and the grisk management e diversification.
Recent historical data on domestic transactions support this view, demonstrating that the execution risks linked to the integration of new structures are modest – thanks to the excellent track record demonstrated by the main Italian institutions – in the face of decidedly significant cost synergies.
The impact on credit profiles and ratings
Examining the potential financial repercussions of the maneuvers underway on the market, S&P expresses essentially reassuring assessments on the financial stability of large groups. Regarding the Intesa Sanpaolo transaction, analysts estimate that the bank’s superior profit-generating capacity will allow it to absorb the impact of the acquisition, keeping the risk-weighted capital ratio (RAC ratio) comfortably above 8% in 2028 (compared to 7.6% pro forma at the end of 2024). Consequently, the agency deems it unlikely that there will be an impact on the creditworthiness (issuer credit rating) of the institution, whose ratings remain bound by the ceiling of the sovereign rating of the Italian State.
Even for BPER Banca, the possible expansion of market share is seen as continuity with a growth strategy already successfully tested, with a largely manageable effect on capital (whose RAC ratio estimated in 2025 was above 9%). S&P warns, however, that to reap short-term benefits and minimize operational risks, seamless execution of the asset integration will be vital.
The time factor for system synergies
Finally, analyzing the hypothesis of a large alternative merger (such as the one proposed by Banco BPM), S&P recognizes its high strategic value thanks to the strong geographical and commercial complementarity, which would reduce the competitive gap with the market leadership. However, analysts introduce an element of temporal caution: while admitting the clear benefits for the business and financial position of the new entity, S&P believes that a considerable period of time may be needed before the full benefits and synergies of the new group materialize concretely..
Therefore, the agency will continue to monitor the evolution of these maneuvers, the real financial impacts of which will only be quantifiable as their actual execution approaches.
