Bayesian sinking, the questions remained unanswered after the recovery of the wreck and the possible explanations

The wreck of the Bayesian yachttragically sunk after a shipwreck on the night of August 19, 2024 300 meters from the coast of Port in Sicily causing the death of 7 people including Mike Lynch and his daughter Hannahhe was recovered on June 21 together with his master tree on June 22 (the highest in the world for a monolyly boat) and now he is on the Termini Imerese construction site waiting for the prosecutor’s investigations to help shed light on the possible causes of the accident.

The most optimists hoped that already the recovery of the wreck could give a response to some of the Questions still unresolved on the sides of the sailing ship of the Perini ships. In reality, as often happens in these cases, it was not like that. Indeed, the doubts about how the boat has been able to sink throughout 4 minutes – while Sir Robert Baden Powell remained 100 meters away has remained completely unharmed – they remain since last August 19th.

The main demand is linked to the fact that to completely sink a boat of that tonnage they need Between 800 and 900 cubic meters of water. How did this water flood the yacht in just 4 minutes? It would mean a flow of over 13 tons of water per second.

A possible explanation could have been theOpening of a flaw in the hull. The wreck was overturned on the right side, so initially there was no way to check the presence of an opening on that side. When the hull was recovered, however, he still floated: as soon as they returned to the surface, the technicians emptied the interior of the yacht from the water that had invaded it and a floating test was performed, which was a positive result.

According to a hypothesis put on the table already at the time of the sinking, a tailgate of the sailing ship may have been opened: surely it would have been an excellent way to bring into large quantities of water in a relatively short time. However, this theory is also to be confirmed: recovery operations have highlighted that Bayesian tailgates were well closed. This fact does not fully exclude the hypothesis: the hydrostatic pressure of the water off Porticello may have closed them during the sinking itself. In the absence of further investigations, however, this track at the moment is also a dead end.

Then there is the question of side ladder of the sailing ship, which was used to raise passengers on board. If it is true that the ladder was open, the hole from which this comes out is definitely too small to flood a large part of Bayesian in just a few minutes.

A possible explanation could reside in the fact that The yacht was already partially flooded The moment he began his shipwreck, but this too is currently only a conjecture. A conjecture, if nothing else, not incompatible with what was stated in the preliminary report of the Marine Accident Investigation Branch (Maib) published last May. According to the British Authority – involved in the first investigations as the yacht beat the United Kingdom flag – an inclination of the boat would have been enough 42 ° to make water embark through ventilation pipes.

According to what is reported in the same report, the limit angle for reversing the yacht would have been much higher (approximately 70 °) and reachable with winds of wind of approx 63 knots (117 km/h), judged “possible” at the time of sinking by the English weather agency Methoffice and indirectly confirmed by the commander of the nearby Sir Robert Baden Powell, who reported having seen the anemometer mark 65 knots. In short, the weather conditions on the night of August 19, 2024 seem to have been sufficiently adverse to cause an entrance to water in the boat.

The large variable to be clarified, however, will be if and what were the any human errors which, if avoided, would allow to avoid disaster.