THE’Israeli attack to Iran, with aOperation called “Rising Lion”cannot be defined as a “lightning bolt”, and yet it has anyway The majority of the World Cancelleries is caught by surprise in addition to most of the international public opinion. The Israeli aerial offensive, which began in the night between 12 and 13 June 2025 with missiles that reached the capital Tehranwas immediately massive and involved a high number of objectives soon leading to one Iranian reaction of equal extent (Operation “True Promise III”). Beyond the declarations of the facade including the development of an atomic arsenal by Iran, the one we are witnessing is a rendering of the accounts in full rule between the “Ayatollah regime” and the Israeli government of Prime Minister Netanyahu now engaged on several war fronts.
The pretext of the Iranian nuclear threat
While the Israelis jets began their bombing campaign against objectives located in the territory of the Islamic Republic of IranIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu He hastened to declare that the objective of the offensive were the sites of the Iranian nuclear programseen by Jewish state as nothing less than one existential threat. However, it is interesting to highlight two aspects that appear crucial:
- THE’Israeli military aggressionbecause it is about this, considering the International law, The same day began in which the government of the Israeli Prime Minister, whose popularity is increasingly scarce, would have had to face a vote of no confidence in the KnesseetThe Israeli Parliament. The beginning of this new war, much more serious than the others in which the state of Israel has been involved since the beginning of the Middle Eastern crisis, has for the moment removed the prospect of a fall of the government, which could also open the doors of the prison in Netanyhu in light of the judicial trials in which it is involved.
- The pretext of the Iranian nuclear threat is not enough to justify the vastness of the operation which immediately involved objectives and figures not directly involved with the Persian state nuclear program. Of particular interest was the elimination of most of the leadership of the Corps of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution (Pasdaran), accompanied by repeated appeals addressed to the Iranian people so that they “raised against the oppressor”, in addition to the continuous pressure against the United States to take the field alongside the Israeli state.
These facts lead to the conclusion that Netanyahu’s goal is not simply blocking the Iranian nuclear program but to cause a “Change of regime”, In short, it is an attempt to overturn Tehran’s leadership.
The context of the Middle Eastern crisis
The two countries have been engaged for years In an underground war for domain in the Middle East that de facto dates back to the victory of the Khomeinist revolutionbut things took a dramatic turn starting from the attacker conducted from Hamas militiamen, and the other groups of the Palestinian armed militancy, the 7-8 October 2023 to which it is in fact followed A full -blown war declaration by the Jewish state against the whole front of the so -called “resistance axis”that is, that galaxy of local and powerful Middle Eastern forces belonging to the Tehran regime.
In this spiral of attacks and provocations, Israelis and Iranians have already had the opportunity to exchange blows that made the delicate balances of the Middle East shake. Think, for example, To Iranian missile attacks against Israel of 13-14 April 2024 (Operation “True Promo I”) and 1 October 2024 (Operation “True Promised II”) which were followed as many Israeli reprisals. However, while the previous armed actions had been limited both in the entity and in the purpose, what we are witnessing starting from 13 June is A full -blown war in which all the red lines have been broken by both sides.
War scenarios
Since the events began for a few days and still in full swing, it is almost Impossible to make a prediction at this moment The future will reserve for us. Analyzing the declarations of the opposite leadership, it seems clear that for equal and contrary reasons, they are willing to continue the war to the bitter end up to its extreme consequences. Excluding a priori catastrophic scenarios such as the impedance of nuclear weapons by Israeli or the involvement of the United States As a fighter part in the conflict, one might think that the dispute will have a binary result: either the Israelis will be able to create the conditions for the fall of the Iranian regime or the military defeat they will suffer will have as a consequence of that of drop the Netanyahu governmentopening prospects that certainly already do not already make sleeping sleep to the prime minister of Jerusalem sleep. Only time will tell us which part will hang the balance of history.
