The Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) has outlined the trajectory for the management of Italian sovereign debt for the second half of 2026. With almost half of the annual financing program already successfully archived, Via XX Settembre looks to the coming months by focusing on the stability of the yield curve and the control of financing costs.
The Treasury plan: net emissions of 10-25 billion
In the update press release on the quarterly issuance program, the MEF estimated that for the period from 1 July to 31 December 2026, medium-long term securities (such as BTPs and CCTeus) will be placed on the market for a gross amount of between 130 and 145 billion euros. Subtracting the approximately 128 billion euros of securities maturing in the same period, the net emissions they will settle in a fork included between 10 and 25 billion euros. This planning reflects prudent management, supported by the Treasury’s current cash availability, and aims to cover the needs of the state sector without flooding the market.
Specifically, for the third quarter, the Treasury plans to issue the following securities and related amounts:
- BTP Short Term (maturity 30/10/2028 and minimum amount 9 billion euros)
- 5 year BTP (02/01/2032, 10 billion euros)
- 7 year BTP (15/09/2033, 10 billion euros)
- 10 year BTP (01/10/2036, 10 billion euros)
In the third quarter, further tranches of the following securities may also be offered:
- BTP 15/06/2026 – 15/09/2029 3.00%;
- BTP 04/05/2026 – 01/06/2031 3.15%;
- BTP 04/15/2026 – 06/15/2033 3.30%;
- BTP 04/22/2026 – 07/01/2036 3.80%.
In relation to market conditions, the MEF reserves the right to offer further tranches of nominal securities being issued with a maturity exceeding 10 years, CCTeu and indexed to inflation also in order to take into account any dislocation on the secondary market of said securities. Finally, the MEF will be able to offer further tranches of medium and long-term securities, nominal – at fixed and variable rates (CCTeu) – and indexed to inflation, no longer being issued, to ensure the efficiency of the secondary market.
Almost half of 2026 emissions covered
Until the end of May 2026, the Italian State has placed approximately 171.5 billion euros in medium-long term securities, recording a solid response from institutional and retail investors (families).
The funding activity, for the same period, in addition to covering the needs of the State Sector, made it possible to refinance medium-long term government bonds as well as maturing securities issued in non-domestic format for a total amount of approximately 133 billion euros, including the amounts withdrawn in the exchange/repurchase operations.
At the end of May 2026, therefore, the progress of the issuance program for the current year stood at around 48%, a percentage which rises to 61% if the issues carried out and those already announced which settle in the month of June are included.
The trend in interest rates: costs slightly increasing
Despite the good performance of placements, the global macroeconomic scenario and the restrictive policies of central banks continue to have an impact on the cost of money. The average cost at issue detected in the first five months of 2026 rose to 2.91%marking an increase compared to the average 2.75% recorded during 2025. On the other hand, the positive note comes from structural stability: the average life of the debt remained solid, rising slightly to 6.96 years compared to 6.92 years at the end of 2025.
The BTP-Bund Spread and risk perception
On the financial markets front, the spread between the BTP-Bund – the thermometer indicator of investor confidence in our debt – shows interesting dynamics. Despite the increase in interest rates, the differential is benefiting from a context in which Germany also finds itself having to increase its debt to finance structural investments in defense and infrastructure. This dynamic pushed German yields higher, partially reducing the spread with Italian bonds. The spread thus remains at historically manageable levels, easing financial tensions and confirming the market’s good perception of the resilience of Italian public accounts.
