Is it celebrated the achievement of the agreement on the duties with the US or not? Doubt appears to be the success of the talks, at least European side, for all affected sectors. The voices rise, but above all the fears. The end of uncertainty on the duties in fact does not necessarily bring good news and the automotive sector, such as the agricultural one, knows it well.
The billions in smoke could even go into the background (if they did not involve the risk of failure for many companies), when among the worst hypotheses there is that of the relocation of the factories. In fact, if the gain is null or even at a loss, the production on site (in the United States) of cars or components could simply increase to avoid paying the duties.
Among the most affected automotive sector
Companies welcome the agreement between the EU and the USA on the duties at 15%with concern. Sectors such as cars, agri -food, machinery and wine have been dealing for some time on how much they will lose. Because the consequences of the agreement to lose are these: billions of euros of exports in smoke.
The president of Confindustria, Emanuele Orsini, asks for a new industrial plan, but also to spoil the stability pact. “For us all that is beyond zero is a problem,” he said in reference to the agreement at 15% and this is because, according to estimates, companies risk losing 22.6 billion euros. The calculation takes into account the damage to the exports and the effects of the devaluation of the dollar.
The major damage will fall on some sectors, such as cars and automotive components. The European Association of Car Manufacturers (ACEA) explains that the negative impact will not be only for the EU, but also for the US industry.
Companies already in crisis: the impact of duties
The US market is the second for Italian exports and in the USA, as Confartigianato recalls, Italian entrepreneurs have scored the greater growth of exports: +57%, or 24.2 billion euros. For this reason, the duties will not be painless and, on the contrary, several scenarios are expected.
Nobody is positive, some are better than others and then there is the worst hypothesis.
In general, there is a risk that some companies do not make it, starting from the artisan ones who cannot support direct or indirect duties. “Many of our cooperatives and businesses, already testing for years of economic challenges, will struggle to absorb this impact,” adds Confcooperative. Thus starts the request to the government and the EU to activate any possible tool to avoid further crises.
Just think of the car industry, which for months has not shown positive data:
- In 2024 843,991 vehicles were delivered, in 2025 only 794,088;
- The net profit goes from 2.15 to 1.34 billion euros.
“There is not much to celebrate. Obviously we are satisfied with the reduction of the rate with the last round of negotiating, but 15% remain important and creates uncertainty and complexity to the Italian and European automotive system”, underlines the director of the anphia Gian Marco Giorda.
Delocalization hypothesis: what it means
The worst scenario, in addition to the failure of the plants, is that of relocation. While some groups, such as the ItalianFrancese one, are safer, others are more exposed. Those who have plants in the United States will better absorb the impact of duties, aiming for greater internal production for the US, Canada and Mexico market.
The scenario for cars from Germany is different. German houses could increase production in the USA or directly move (relocating) the factories to avoid paying the duties.
The scenario would also have negative impacts for Italian producers. In fact, German vehicles contain a lot of Italian components. With the relocation this collaboration would continue or would you risk jobs? The question is lawful, the answer is uncertain.
