For several weeks, Cuba has been experiencing one of the most serious crises in recent years: lack of food, electricity and fuel is plunging the island into an emergency situation that could soon turn into a humanitarian crisis. Blackouts and interruptions to the national electricity grid are increasingly frequent and often last up to 24 hours or more. According to the Cuban Electric Union (UNE), the public company in charge of energy supplies, the blackouts are partly due to the obsolete conditions of the power plants and partly to the fuel blockade imposed by the US government presided over by Donald Trump. Waste accumulates along the streets of the island’s cities, a direct consequence of the lack of fuel and therefore of means of collection and disposal, food is increasingly scarce and even the tourism sector, which represented around 10% of the island’s GDP, is seriously affected by this crisis which from energy is becoming food and humanitarian.
The causes of the blackout in Cuba: oil blockage and lack of fuel
Historically, Cuba has always been heavily dependent on fossil fuels, primarily oil, managing to produce only 40% of its energy independently. In addition to the historic embargo – the so-called I block – imposed on the island during the Kennedy presidency and in force since 1962, Donald Trump has currently also blocked the entry of petroleum fuels, reducing supplies and therefore giving rise to a serious energy and economic crisis. The I block it has also reduced supplies from Cuba’s historic regional allies, such as Venezuela and Mexico. In January 2026, in fact, following the US attack on Venezuela and the kidnapping of President Nicolàs Maduro, Venezuelan oil resources are under greater US control and influence, making Cuba’s supply from its historic ally difficult. This, combined with President Trump’s threats of tariffs against countries that supply Cuba with oil, has created a shortage of energy resources. The lack of fuel has generated, among others, consequences such as: lack of supply even for international airlines, inconvenience to public transport and health facilities, slowdown in the agricultural transport of goods and therefore also of food and basic necessities, inconvenience to telecommunications, which impact the daily lives of citizens and workers.
From economic crisis to humanitarian crisis
The risk is that the socio-economic crisis affecting Cuba could transform into a food and humanitarian crisis. Testimonies from Cubans on the island speak of a lack of medicines and basic necessities, as well as a shortage of food. There woodworking booklet, a document introduced in 1962 which regulates the monthly distribution of basic food and hygiene products at subsidized prices to the population, is losing value as stocks of even the most basic foods are insufficient. This is forcing the inhabitants to turn to private sellers with significantly higher prices, in an already very serious and precarious economic situation. This condition is not new: to date there have been 31 motions moved by the United Nations to ask for the end of the embargo on Cuba and in March 2024, for the first time in history, Cuba had already turned to the World Food Program to request support in terms of food supply, given the serious and prolonged lack of basic necessities, including bread and milk.
The President of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Cuba, Miguel Díaz-Canel, during talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, November 2018. Source: Kremlin via Wikimedia Commons
The political situation: iron fist or negotiations?
Donald Trump is implementing a hard line towards Cuba, initially also announcing his intention to attack and occupy the island militarily. For his part, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel has instead announced that he is willing to negotiate with the US government, but under conditions of respect and equality. An important and non-negotiable point for the Cuban president is Cuba’s political regime, the maintenance of which represents a necessary condition for any negotiation. The island of Cuba does not represent any threat to the United States, declared Cuban Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernandez de Cossio, at the forefront of negotiations with Washington. Meanwhile, the Cuban government has announced a non-aggressive defense plan to be implemented in the event of a US military attack, although it does not consider an armed conflict likely, and reiterated the lack of justification for military action against Cuba. The government also announced that it had freed 51 political prisoners, a gesture which, however, it clarified was not linked to talks with the United States but to an internal political decision.
Link between Cuban exiles and Donald Trump’s electoral support
An important element to take into consideration when analyzing international relations between Cuba and the United States is the role and political weight of the community of Cuban exiles present in the United States, and in particular in the State of Florida, where more than 1.5 million citizens are of Cuban origin. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio himself has Cuban parents who emigrated to the United States and is one of the major opponents of the Cuban government. In Florida, the anti-Castro communities, made up mainly of Cuban exiles who arrived after the 1959 revolution, represent a strong political component. Their great electoral weight could therefore influence Donald Trump’s choices, as they are notoriously a key state for presidential elections. Cuban exiles therefore represent a community that has historically influenced foreign policy choices towards Cuba. During the Obama administration in 2014 there were some signs of détente with Raúl Castro’s government which had suggested a thaw in diplomatic relations between the two countries. Today, however, Donald Trump’s tensions against the Cuban government are exacerbating an already very difficult situation. On the international side, there are numerous solidarity initiatives in support of the Cuban people, including the sending of a flotilla with the participation of over 30 countries and around 700 activists, which started from Mexico with food and basic necessities. On board the boats there was also an Italian delegation made up of Martina Steinwurzel, Umberto Cerutti and Paolo Tangari of AICEC, members of the European Convoy, together with a representative of the Camalli of Genoa.
This initiative represents both support for the Cuban population, increasingly exhausted by the current energy crisis, and symbolically an instrument of international pressure to put an end to the US embargo on the island.
