The winter of 2026-2027 could cost up to 1,000 euros per family. This is the alarm raised by Codacons, which carried out a study on the increased costs that Italians will incur for turning on radiators at home, due to the strong growth in energy prices caused by the war in the Middle East.
At current levels, writes Codacons, the average winter gas bill would cost around 860 euros for Italian families with a variable price contract, while for those with a fixed price contract the estimated cost is 630 euros. But we are talking about average, in fact, not about how much families can actually spend in some regions of Italy. Because in the North there is the specter of spending well above 1,000 euros.
Winter bills 2026-2027: prices on the rise
Codacons has carried out a study on the increased costs for turning on radiators at home due to the growth in energy prices. At current levels of tariffs on the free market, the average winter gas bill would cost around 860 euros with variable price contracts, while it stops at around 630 euros in the case of a fixed price contract.
The study’s estimates are based on Arera data on actual gas consumption for domestic and condominium use in the various regions referring to 2024 and on the average prices charged by operators last winter, therefore in the December-March period, including the items raw material energy, network and system charges, taxes and duties.
80% of total household gas consumption is concentrated in the winter months, but the figure varies greatly from region to region due to climatic variability, as well as urban planning differences and the different degree of methanization in the various areas of the country.
Where you will pay the highest gas bills
The estimate of the higher costs for Italians living in the North compared to those living in the South is also based on climatic differences.
The current prices charged on the free market see an average of 860 euros for Italy, but spending can exceed 1,300 euros in Valle d’Aosta and Trentino-Alto Adige.
It is estimated that on the variable price bill for the December-March period the situation is:
- in Valle d’Aosta and Trentino-Alto Adige expenditure exceeding 1,300 euros;
- in Lombardy expenditure of around 1,180 euros;
- in Veneto expenditure of 1,095 euros.
The lowest expenses will instead be recorded in:
- Sicily with around 487 euros;
- Campania with around 494 euros.
Instead, for fixed price bills for 12 or 24 months, assuming that gas tariffs have remained stuck at the levels recorded by Arera last winter, the average Italian expense is around 630 euros.
How much does someone with a variable price bill spend
Taking into account the increase in tariffs since last February, the average winter gas bill for those with a variable price contract is now approximately 205 euros higher than in the period December 2025-March 2026.
The regions that will be most penalized overall, due to the greater consumption of gas for heating, are those in the North, where the burden is 329 euros in Valle d’Aosta, 310 euros in Trentino-Alto Adige and 281 euros in Lombardy.
An increase which, however, is not felt throughout Italy, because in the meantime climate change has made winters warmer in the South. For this reason Sicily and Calabria will end up spending around 120 euros less.
According to Codacons, however, in the coming weeks the estimate will have to be redone, because energy prices on the markets could undergo new increases and gas tariffs could record further increases for those with variable price contracts and for vulnerable users.
