The value of the unobserved economy in 2024 alone is 218 billion. This is an increase compared to 2023 (+0.3%) compared to a GDP growth of 3.2%. The incidence of this value remains lower than last year (from 10.2% to 9.9%). While the underground economy stands at around 198.4 billion, with illegal activities falling to 19.8 billion, irregular work is 3,277,000 units, an increase compared to 2023.
These are the data from the latest report on the economy not observed in the national accounts for the years 2021-2024, published by Istat on 16 October 2026.
Unobserved economy: over 218 billion in 2024
Istat has published the report on “Economy not observed in national accounts”, i.e. all those market productive activities that escape direct observation. We are talking about the shadow economy and the illegal economy, which together reach a value of 218.2 billion euros, an increase of 0.3% compared to the previous year (217.6 billion).
A value compared to GDP growth at current prices of 3.2%, on which the unobserved economy affects 9.9%, a decrease compared to 10.2% in 2023.
The unobserved dynamics of the economy is supported by the growth in added value generated by the use of irregular labour, which increases by 3.9%. In 2024 the composition of the unobserved components of the economy changes:
- the share of added value generated by the use of irregular labor rises to 36.8%;
- the value of under-declarations drops to 49.3%.
For the years 2021-2024, the table:
The underground economy is increasing
The value of the underground economy stands at around 198.4 billion euros, an increase compared to the previous year (+0.4%). It affects GDP by 9%, returning to 2021 levels and interrupting the trend shown in the previous two years. The component of under-declarations is equal to 107.6 billion euros, while that connected to the use of irregular labor reaches 80.3 billion euros.
The spread of the underground economy, explains Istat, is linked to the type of reference market and not to the type of good or service produced. Overall, the weight of the underground economy on added value is higher:
- in other personal services (30.7%);
- in trade, transport, accommodation and catering (18.5%);
- in construction (17.7%);
- in other business services (5%);
- in the production of investment goods (4%);
- in the production of intermediate goods (1.4%).
Irregular work is growing: the sectors
Irregular work is also increasing, i.e. work positions for which tax and social security legislation is not respected, relating to illegal activities and therefore not directly observable through administrative sources. Of these work units, in 2024 there will be over 3 million (specifically 3,277,000) and of these 2,396,000 are employed as employees, but with irregular contracts.
The increase in the irregularity rate is due to the growth of irregular work (+4.6%) and is confirmed to be higher among employees than among self-employed workers.
Irregular work has increased in numerous sectors; the only sectors bucking the trend are education, healthcare and social assistance. While the sectors where the most significant increase is observed are:
- other personal services (+0.9%);
- agriculture, forestry, fishing and construction (+0.8%);
- trade, transport, accommodation and catering (+0.5%);
- production of investment goods (+0.5%);
- production of intermediate goods, energy and waste (+0.3%);
- production of food and consumer goods (+0.2%);
- professional services (+0.1%).
In general, the incidence of irregular work weighs more heavily in the tertiary sector and reaches particularly high levels in the “other personal services” sector. But the presence of irregular workers in agriculture, commerce, transport, accommodation and catering is also significant.
Illegal economy in slight decline
A positive figure refers to the illegal economy, which in 2024 is estimated at 19.8 billion euros. This represents a decrease of 0.2 billion euros. Among these, drug trafficking stands out, recording a slight decrease, while cigarette smuggling and irregularities in the transport and warehousing sectors remain marginal.
