The Study Center of Confindustria He has published the report “Energy, Green Deal and duties: the obstacles to the Italian and European economy” which also contains estimates for the Italian GDP For 2025
For Italy and Europe the main brakes to growth, however, remain the low competitiveness and the energy price. The risk, in particular for our country, is that the drop in industrial production becomes structural and that the country loses its secondary sector, which made it after the second post -war one of the G7 states.
Forecasts on GDP
Confindustria confirms that Italian growth in 2024 was only of the 0.7%far from the objectives set by Giorgia Meloni’s government, who wanted to reach the percentage point. Almost all the voices, except the stocks, have increased, but 2025 seems to be another uncertain year.
For next year, the report provides for a reduction in growth at 0.6%, and this only if Europe and the United States will be able to avoid ending up in a real commercial war. Otherwise, the Italian GDP risks bordering on stagnation, with an increase expected only to 0.2%.
It is a Widely discounted revision compared to the forecasts of the past years. 2025 was to be the year of the consolidation of growth, over 1% hoped for in 2024. The disappointing results of last year, however, compromised this vision and the percentage point could only be achieved in 2026.
The positive factors for the Italian economy
Confindustria’s report notes that some 2025 trends could go in the direction of greater growth for Italian GDP. The first factor mentioned is the monetary policy of the European Central Bank. The reduction of interest rates should continue throughout the year, also seen the decline in inflation throughout the euro area.
Another positive element is the increase in the income of families, which in 2025 and 2026 should accentuate itself thanks to the increase in the occupation of the past years and the decline in theinflation. This could give new push to the internal question, which in turn could compensate for part of the internal instability.
The fears related to duties and energy
However, there are also many factors that could negatively affect the growth dynamics of Italy in 2025. The first are the U.S. dutieswhich could continue to worsen during the year. The USA are one of Italy’s main commercial partners and a reduction in exports to the other bank of the Atlantic could be dangerous especially for those sectors that have already suffered from the Chinese economic crisis and sanctions to Russia.
Another crucial aspect identified by Confindustria is the energy price. In Italy Gas and above all electricity cost much more than in the rest of Europe and this causes an increase in production costs for companies. A factor that makes them less competitive and that contributes to the third element of concern. In fact, for some time now, Italian industrial production has been falling, despite a slight turnaround at the beginning of the year. A systematic deindustrialization would, according to the report, a huge risk for Italy.
