There is ferment in the sector of defensein a phase in which the theme is in the spotlight in the political-institutional fields and in a European dimension. At the center of attention ends the Italian Iveco, for its division for defense (Iveco Defgence Vehicles or Idv). A branch that throats to many companies European, not least the compatriot Leonardowhich would also be the favorite at an institutional level. Meanwhile, the rumors that speak of an interest of various operators put their wings to the Iveco title, which on the stock exchange came to earn 5%.
A three -way run
Iveco has in February the process that will lead to Spin-Off (Scorporo) of IDV And he gave the assignment to the US business bank Goldman Sachs to explore the alternatives. Among these would be the sale, to be realized by the end of the year, but also the Stock market quotation.
For the sale of the activity there would be an interest of various operators: the Franco-German alliance KNNspecialized in the production of tanks, is currently the least plausible hypothesis, but they would also have come forward The Czech group CSGalready present in Italy since 2023 with the acquisition of 80% of the Brescia company weapons Perazzi, and The British giant Bae Systemsalready widely consolidated in Italy and with two collaborations with Leonardo on the assets (for MBDA missiles and for the hunting project of sixth generation GCAP).
And an insider
In the race for Idv, however, there would also be an insider, identified in Leonardowhich also appears to be The favorite option at the government level. The Italian Big Defense could in fact detect IDV through the joint venture with the German Rheinmetallactive in the production of armed and armored wagons for the Italian army. IDV already participates in the project as supplier, with a share of the 12-15% of the order for a value of 2.7-3.5 billion out of a total of 23 billion. The Leonardo option would however find a great Limit in the price. Experts believe that, for the division, Iveco could Check up to 1 billion Euro, according to the prospects for the increase in orders and the past performance by IDV, which closed 2024 with revenues for 1.1 billion euros.
What analysts think of it
“We have always believed that an option that involves Leonardo is the most likely As a welcome by the Italian government (therefore not risking the exercise of the Golden Power) and allowing to exploit synergies from an industrial point of view, “explain Equita experts, highlighting a price problem.
“As we have commented several times in recent months, press sources have reported an evaluation proposed by Leonardo of 750 million (without clarifying whether it is equity or EV), which is undoubtedly low (equivalent to about 7x the Adjusted Ebit 2024) “, underline the experts of Equita, indicating one Evaluation of 1.3 Miliardi, which could be also “much higher” In light of the recent rerating of the multiples of the defense sector.
“For Iveco We confirm that the spin-off/sale of IDV represents a positive catalyst, to add the speculative appeal For a subsequent aggregation of Iveco ex-Idv. For Leonardo, If it is the buyer, the deal could prove to be Expensivebut if shared with Rheinmetall the financial effort would be shared and we believe it is justifiable by Industrial synergies“, The experts conclude.
