OPEC+ advances inexorably with its production increases, which aim to reabsorb the previous production cuts of 1.65 million barrels decided in March 2023 (reaching up to 2.2 million barrels in November 2023). This latest increase of 137 thousand barrels, the third consecutive, is in line with the changes decided in recent months and confirms the strategy of cautious and progressive production adjustment decided by eight members of the cartel, including Russia.
Oil is rising fractionally this morning, as the market has already priced in this production increase, with Brent marking an increase of 0.69% to 65.22 dollars a barrel, while WTI marks an advance of 0.71% to 61.40 dollars.
The eight countries participating in the voluntary adjustments
Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, the eight countries that had agreed to voluntary production cuts in April and November 2025, met via video conference on Sunday, November 2, 2025, to review global market conditions and prospects.
Cut of 137 thousand barrels from December 1st
In light of the stable global economic outlook and current strong market fundamentals, reflecting low oil inventories, the eight participating countries have decided to implement a production adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day, in line with expectations, compared to the 1.65 million barrels per day of voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023. This adjustment will be implemented starting from 1 December 2025.
The eight countries, which will meet again on November 30, have also decided to suspend the production increases scheduled for January, February and March 2026, taking into account the seasonality of the oil market.
A flexible strategy confirmed
The eight countries participating in the voluntary cuts reiterated that they will be able to return 1.65 million barrels per day to the market, in part or in full, based on the evolution of market conditions and in a gradual manner. Countries will continue to carefully monitor and evaluate market conditions and, in their continued commitment to supporting market stability, reiterate the importance of adopting a cautious approach and maintaining maximum flexibility, which allows them to suspend or cancel further voluntary production adjustments.
The eight OPEC+ countries have confirmed their intention to fully offset any excess production volume from January 2024 and, to this end, will continue to meet monthly to review market conditions and the compliance of their decisions.
The market situation
Meanwhile, a record surplus is expected for the oil market next year, according to the forecasts of the International Energy Agency (IEA), and every additional barrel offered to the market risks further worsening this surplus. According to IEA estimates, global production will exceed consumption by an average of 3.33 million barrels per day in 2026, reaching an all-time record just above the peak reached in 2020, during the Covid pandemic.
Peace in the Middle East and the resumption of trade, thanks also to the bilateral agreements signed by the United States, could further aggravate this situation, while the sanctions imposed on Russia could slow down OPEC+ supply and balance the market.
