Downward revision The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 by 135 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment, now standing at a “healthy” 2.1 million barrels per day (mb/d), well above the historical average of 1.4 mb/d recorded before the COVID-19 pandemic.
Oil demand, OPEC cuts growth forecast
This slight revision “reflects actual data received for Q1 2024 and in some cases Q2 2024, as well as the expectations of softening for China’s oil demand growth in 2024″we read in the Monthly Oil Market Report, the monthly document which analyses market trends.
In terms of regioni, OPEC expects the OECD area expand by about 0.2 mb/d, year-on-year, in 2024. OECD Americas are expected to account for all of this growth, as OECD Europe and Asia Pacific are expected to contract. In non-OECD countries, oil demand is expected to increase by about 1.9 mb/d, year-on-year, led by China with support from other Asia, India, the Middle East, and Latin America.
China weighs
The association predicts that total global oil demand will reach 104.3 mb/d in 2024, supported by strong demand for air travel and road mobility, including trucking, as well as healthy industrial, construction and agricultural activities in non-OECD countries. Global growth forecasts are subject to many uncertainties, including global economic developments.
What emerges from the Monthly Oil Market Report
For 2025, Global oil demand growth is expected to be a “robust” 1.8 mb/d, y-o-y, slightly revised down from the previous month’s assessment. OPEC expects OECD to grow 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, while non-OECD demand is forecast to expand 1.7 mb/d.
As regards the progress of the GDP, OPEC says global economic growth is forecast at 2.9% for 2024 and 2.9% for 2025, both unchanged from last month’s assessment. After strong growth in 2Q24, the US economic growth forecast for 2024 was revised up to 2.4%, while the 2025 forecast remains unchanged at 1.9%. The solid economic performance shown by the US economy in 1H24 was partly offset by weaker economic performance in Japan. growth forecasts Japan’s economic outlook for 2024 has been revised slightly downwards at 0.2%, while the forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at 0.9%.
