Italian debt has exceeded 3,200 billion euros for the first time. In June it reached 3,207.247 billion, with an increase of 26.2 billion in just one month. Compared to June 2025, when the debt amounted to 3,071.367 billion, it means that over 12 months it grew by approximately 335.9 billion euros.
Why did it increase?
To understand why it increased by 26.2 billion, we need to look at the public administration needs, which amounted to 13.159 billion euros, with the Treasury’s liquid assets increasing from 51.928 to 61.710 billion. It means, as the Bank of Italy itself explains in the report “Public finance: needs and debt – June 2026”, that the increase of 26.2 billion does not imply that the State recorded a deficit of the same amount in the same month.
It is above all the central administrations that cause the debt to rise, while the debt of local administrations falls. Although exceeding 3,200 billion has a symbolic value, the nominal debt figure is not enough to judge the sustainability of the public finances. As we have explained, to evaluate sustainability we must relate the debt to the size of the economy, considering the deficit, the average interest cost, GDP growth and the maturity structure.
Who holds the Italian debt?
As for holding securities, there is a change linked directly to global monetary policy. As the report explains, the share of debt held by the Bank of Italy continues to decline, and this is the consequence of the budget tightening initiated by the Eurotower.
Thus the composition of debt holders changes. According to data in the hands of the Bank of Italy, the share held by the central institute continues to decline. The figure reflects a progressive reduction of the Central Bank’s weight on the government bond market after the conclusion of the net purchases as part of the monetary policy program. At the same time, the weight of foreign investors is increasing.
The return of international investors
We can try to answer the question: who lends money to the Italian state? It is here that we see an interesting fact, namely that an increasingly higher share of Italian debt is in foreign hands. According to the latest data, non-resident investors hold 35.9% of Italian public debt, therefore more than a third (up from 35.7% in the previous period).
It means that international funds are once again looking with interest at Italy, attracted by a profitable risk premium. The positive side is that if international investors buy Italian securities, it means that Italy is still considered credible: it is no coincidence, in fact, that the spread has fallen significantly compared to the past.
The flip side of the coin is the decline in Italian investors: the shares in the hands of other residents, therefore families and businesses, recorded a slight decline, falling from 14.7% in April to 14.5%.
The risks of dependence on foreign markets
There are those who, like the lawyer Angelo Greco, read something worrying in it. It is the negative side of the phenomenon, because, he writes, investors do not buy BTPs out of patriotism:
They buy because it’s convenient. And if one day it is no longer convenient, they could ask for higher returns or move the money elsewhere.
Hence the fear of being less free and of depending on those who finance. Public debt, continues the lawyer, is also power:
Whoever lends you money can influence you. And if over a third of Italy’s debt is held abroad, the question is not just how much we owe, but who we have to answer to.
As the sector newspapers are explaining in these hours, there are very specific risks:
- greater volatility;
- greater sensitivity to global factors;
- the risk of capital flight in the event of a loss of confidence;
- less political leverage in the event of restructuring.
In this scenario, the state may have less room for domestic solutions (such as putting pressure on national banks) and greater exposure to pressure from markets or international institutions. According to the ESM administrator’s annual report, a negative demand shock of 1% of outstanding debt can increase yields by around 30 basis points.
Italy, however, is among the least exposed countries from a certain perspective: the share of debt held by non-Eurozone investors is around 13.4%, while other countries such as Germany, Finland and France record higher percentages.
