Positive closing for Milan, Madrid and Amsterdam, while Frankfurt, London and Paris remain close to parity. Investor sentiment today benefited from progress in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and hopes that the truce between Iran and the United States will hold ahead of talks in Pakistan at the weekend. The ceasefire between the United States and Iran appears to be holding to a large extent, although clashes between Israel and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah continue. In this context, the price of oil remains at levels incompatible with a rapid easing of inflationary pressures.
US President Donald Trump continues to alternate signs of openness with explicit pressure on Iran, expressing confidence in the next talks and at the same time warning Tehran not to impede maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. US Vice President JD Vance said the US negotiating delegation leaving for Pakistan will not be receptive if Iran “tries to deceive” the United States.
Macroeconomic data
In the United States, in March, headline inflation showed changes of +0.9% m/m (as expected) and +3.3% y/y (compared to +3.4% expected and +2.4% previously), while core inflation was +0.2% m/m (as in February) and +2.6% y/y (compared to +2.7% expected and +2.5% previously). On a monthly basis, the energy component rose by +10.9%, driven by +21.2% achieved by petrol (a record change since 1967, which determined almost 75% of that of the entire basket), while the food component remained overall unchanged.
In Italy, in February, industrial production increased by +0.1% m/m, against +0.5% expected and -0.6% previously. “In the 1st quarter of 2026, Italian industrial production is therefore on course for a contraction, aggravated by the March data which will probably be negative, and even for the current quarter it is difficult for it to be able to provide a positive contribution to growth”, comments Intesa Sanpaolo.
European indices today
Among the Eurozone indices, Frankfurt stands still, marking almost nothing, London neglected, which remains glued to the levels of the day before, and nothing done for Paris, which changes hands at parity.
Increase for the Milan Stock Exchange, which shows an increase of 0.59% on the FTSE MIB, consolidating the series of three consecutive increases, which began last Wednesday; along the same lines, the FTSE Italia All-Share makes a small leap forward of 0.64%, reaching 50,045 points. In the money the FTSE Italia Mid Cap (+1.18%); following the same trend, the FTSE Italia Star performed well (+1.09%).
Italian titles today
Among the best performers in Milan, Buzzi (+5.66%), Brunello Cucinelli (+5.25%), Prysmian (+3.63%) and STMicroelectronics (+3.47%) stand out. The worst performances, however, were recorded on Avio, which closed at -5.42%. Leonardo is at a loss, falling by 5.27%. Sharp decline for ENI, which marks -1.96%. Fincantieri is under pressure, with a sharp decline of 1.85%.
Among the best stocks in the FTSE MidCap, Comer Industries (+7.36%), Alerion Clean Power (+7.02%), Reply (+5.55%) and Moltiply Group (+4.03%). The strongest sales, however, hit D’Amico, which ended trading at -5.54%. BFF Bank is heavy, marking a decline of -5.28 percentage points. Moderate contraction for MARR, which suffered a drop of 1.43%. ENAV subdued showing a reduction of 1.28%.
The repercussions on central banks and the euro
With the decline in energy prices, the markets have also revised their forecasts for central bank actions downwards. For the ECB, markets are now pricing in a first rate hike by June, followed by another by the end of the year. For the Fed, markets now predict a slightly higher probability of a rate cut next year. As energy markets and rates have adjusted, the euro has recovered much of the losses it suffered during the war against the dollar and currently stands near the 1.17 level.
Next week’s data
Next week will be rather poor in macroeconomic data. China will release foreign trade data for March on Tuesday, which is likely to once again show solid export growth. On Thursday, China will release both first-quarter GDP and monthly data on retail sales, real estate, industrial production and investment. Attention will focus in particular on data relating to the real estate sector and consumption, which have proven to be the weak points of the economy. GDP growth is forecast at 4.8% year-on-year, up from 4.5% in the fourth quarter, driven by strong export growth. The UK’s February GDP data will also be released on Thursday. Also expected on Thursday are the final data on the consumer price index for March for the euro area and the ECB minutes.
