A weak week closes for the main European bags, on which caution dominated, with the eyes addressed to the central banks, in particular to the Fed and, to the issue always duties in vogue.
Hosting Markets of Fed and duties
The numbers at American work, under the expectations, feed the expectations of a cut of interest rates, by the Federal Reserve, the first of this year, in the mid -September meeting. . The Fedwatch Tool of the CME Group currently evaluates more than 97% the probability that the Fed cuts the rates of a quarter point in September. Even the beige book of the Fed, published during the week, confirmed a slowdown in the labor market, indicating that seven districts have noted that companies are reluctant to hire workers due to the weakest demand or uncertainty about the duties, the latter other topic under the lens of the investors. The American president, Donald Trump filed an appeal to the Supreme Court to obtain a rapid ruling on most of the rates introduced by his administration and which were considered illegal by a US Court of Appeal.
Usa Usually Top from the end of 2021
The August employment report was less than estimates in the United States. Last month, only 22 thousand jobs were created (excluding the agricultural sector) compared to the previous month, while analysts awaited an increase of 75 thousand seats. It was the 56th consecutive month with a positive account, but a slowdown in the labor market is evident. Unemployment in the United States, in August, still climbed, reaching 4.3%, the highest level since the end of 2021, even if in line with expectations.
Oil falling down. Eyes on OPEC+
On the energy front, a weak week also closes for oil, with investors involving an increase in the offer following the withdrawal of the previous production cuts by OPEC+. The eyes scheduled for the weekend also the end of the summer season could result in a weakening of the demand for petrol in the United States.
New records for gold
The prices of gold, on the other hand, continue to climb and record new records by pushing over 3,600 dollars the ounce. The rise in the listing is fueled by the hopes of a cut of Federal Reserve rates, in the meeting of September 17, strengthened by today’s data on non -agricultural employment in the United States. At the same time, the concerns about the independence of the American Central Bank and on US duties strengthen the demand for gold as a good refuge.
Euro-dollaro conditioned by geopolitical duties and turbulence
The latest decisions taken by President Trump, such as the dismissal of Lisa Cook, a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, and the removal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Mcentarferi, together with the expectations of a now next cut of interest rates by the Fed, contributed to keeping the dollar below the peak of the devaluation touched at the beginning of July, when the green ticket reached an altitude of 1.18.
It could therefore be assumed that most of the credibility differential between the United States and Europe, at the basis of the weakness of the dollar since the liberation day, has already been priced, explains Antonio Cesarano, Chief Global Strategist of Intermonte. In the short term, the analyst adds the indications of the relative force of the economies (Citi Surprise Index USA VS Eurozona), together with those of excess of the USD corte positions (Risk Reveral EUR-USD 1Y) report a possible appreciation of the dollar up to area 1.13/1.15, and then return to the 1.18/1.20 area around the end of the year or by the first quarter of 2026.
The weekly performance of bags
The worst performance of the week is recorded by the Piazza di Milano which gives almost two percentages. The Frankfurt square also down with a -1.8%, followed by Madrid showing a drop of 1.4%and by Paris downhill by 1.1%. London limits the drop to 0.1%. The ending also sets itself weak for the Wall Street bag.
The best and worst in Piazza Affari
In Piazza Affari, the worst securities are the two MPS (-7.8%) and Mediobanca (-6.7%) banks protagonists during the week of the bank risk. Siena has exceeded the minimum threshold of 35% in her public purchase and exchange offer (OPAS) on Piazzetta Cuccia, allowing it to be the fact of the most important Italian business bank which also holds a significant package in Generali. Meanwhile, the Board of Directors of Mediobanca has reiterated that the offer “is without industrial rational as well as without convenience for the shareholders of Mediobanca” and that the new consideration is not “in itself sufficient, also in light of the risks of dissinger and value destruction that characterize the offer, to change the previous evaluation of non -congruity and inadequacy”.
The Moncler shares the subject of a discounted revision of the target price by Morgan Stanley slip by 7%. Down, in addition, Campari -6.9% and Stellantis -5.7%.
In the main basket it is best performers, however, Tim who leaps over 4 percentage points. Also well Ferrari uphill of 2.5%.
