Week of suffering for the European real estate sector and even more so for the Italian one as they await the decisions of the European Central Bank on interest rates. Starting next week, the main Western central banks are preparing for a crucial series of meetings, called to respond to the inflationary crisis generated by the war in the Middle East with divergent fundamentals and limited visibility.
Expectations on BCE & Co.
The ECB is expected to raise the deposit rate from 2.0% to 2.25% on June 11 in what ING calls a “precautionary increase”. DWS expects a gradual adjustment up to 2.50% overall, with the next step not before September. The real issue will be forward guidance: a “delicate hawk” “meeting by meeting” approach is expected.
On June 10, the Bank of Canada is expected to remain steady at 2.25% for the entire year, held back by two quarters of contraction and a negative output gap that does not justify increases. In the following week, the Bank of Japan could raise rates from 0.75% to 1% on June 16 – a level not reached since 1995 – with an 80% probability priced in by the markets. On 18 June the Bank of England is leaning towards a single increase from the current 3.75%, but the decision remains uncertain: ING does not believe in the three increases expected by the market. The Fed will remain still on June 18 (96.4% probability according to FedWatch), with the spotlight on Kevin Warsh’s first press conference at the helm of the institution.
The macro data of the week
Mortgage applications continue to decline in the United States. In the week to May 29, the index measuring the volume of mortgage loan applications recorded a decline of 2.5%, after the -8.5% recorded the previous week.
Meanwhile, UK house prices fell 0.6% in May 2026 on a monthly basis (compared to +0.4% in April and -0.1% expected by analysts), according to the Halifax House Price Index, marking the first decline in five months. The average property price is now £278,024. Annual growth slowed to +1.7%, compared to +3% in the previous month.
Industry news
According to the Crif report, in the first quarter of the year the demand for new mortgages and subrogations decreased by -12.4% and this could be reflected in disbursements after 2025 which, according to the Bank of Italy’s findings, had seen growth of +24.4% compared to 2024 to reach 55.6 billion euros.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, the Italian mortgage market confirmed itself among the most competitive in Europe. This is what emerges from the latest survey by the European Mortgage Federation (EMF): between October and December the average mortgage rate stood at 3.38%, a slight increase compared to the 3.28% of the previous quarter, but still among the lowest values at European level. The Italian figure is significantly lower than that recorded in several European countries.
On the corporate front, Tikehau Capital, a global alternative asset manager, has acquired building land in Bologna – its first investment in the Emilian capital – for the development of a build-to-sale residential project, as part of its Real Estate Value-Add strategy. Finally, the board of directors of Brioschi Sviluppo Immobiliare, having taken note of the appointment of Matteo Cabassi as president of the board of directors by the shareholders’ meeting of 22 May 2026, has appointed Luigi Pezzoli as vice president of the board of directors and Andrea Raschi as managing director, also assigning management powers.
The sector on the stock exchange
The real estate sector on the stock market experienced a very negative week, performing worse than the pan-European Stoxx 600 Real Estate index which lost 2.5% on a weekly basis. The Italian FTSE Italia All Share Real Estate index shows a decline of 5%, performing worse than the FTSE MIB market index which instead records a positive balance (+0.7%).
Among the real estate companies listed on Piazza Affari, the best performance is that of Risanamento (+17.7%). Aedes (+3.2%), Brioschi (+2.1%) and Bastogi (+1.9%) also performed well. IGD fell sharply (-7%), AbitareIn also had a negative week (-1.4%).
