Rally week for real estate indices, with investors looking with optimism to the talks between the US and Iran scheduled for the weekend in Islamabad. However, the context remains fragile: the conflict, now widespread and with multiple actors involved, keeps the stability of a possible truce uncertain and continues to have an impact on energy prices, fueling fears of new inflationary pressures. A scenario that brings attention back to the next moves of central banks, which are decisive for the cost of credit and therefore for demand in the real estate market.
Inflation, Fed and ECB between energy and interest rate risk
Inflation expectations remain at the center of the Fed and ECB’s attention, in a context made more uncertain by the increase in energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions. In the United States, a survey by the New York Federal Reserve has signaled a new increase in inflation expectations, with consumers seeing prices rising by 3.4% in 12 months, while household sentiment is also worsening. The central institute is keeping rates unchanged for now, but does not rule out further increases if price pressures persist. In the euro area, however, the ECB warns that a prolonged energy shock could fuel an inflationary spiral, making new interventions on rates necessary, even if at the moment expectations still remain anchored to the 2% target.
The macro data of the week
The decline in mortgage applications in the United States eases. In the week to April 3, the index measuring the volume of mortgage loan applications recorded a decline of 0.8%, after the -10.4% recorded the previous week. The index relating to refinancing requests decreased by 2.8%, while that relating to new applications increased by 1.1%. The Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA), indicates that 30-year mortgage rates decreased to 6.51% from 6.57% previously.
Sector studies
In the rental market in Italy, a picture of strong misalignment between housing supply and demand persists which has caused rentals to increase: if on the one hand, the more accommodating monetary policy has supported the increase in residential sales, on the other, the increase in property sales prices has also stimulated rental demand. This context led to an increase in rents of 3.5% in 2025, worsening the burden of rent on family budgets. The Rentals Observatory 2025, conducted by Nomisma on behalf of CRIF, in collaboration with Confabitare, is relevant. Also noteworthy is the limited availability of properties for rent, also a consequence of the high number of homes not intended for the traditional rental market, which is particularly accentuated in large urban centers and cities with a tourist vocation: to give an example, in the cities of Milan and Bologna alone there are an estimated 25,000 and 8,000 properties respectively currently not intended for the traditional rental market. The Observatory also analyzed the relationship between landlords and tenants: the real estate agency remains a point of reference especially for owners, but the share of tenants who stipulate the contract without intermediation because they know the landlord directly is growing. Furthermore, 50% of landlords are interested in property management services, in particular for the service relating to the selection and verification of tenant reliability and for the management of payments and reminders. The most significant data is that – in the event of a request – one tenant in three would be ready to present a certificate of financial reliability, a tool already routinely used in several foreign countries to certify the economic solidity of the tenant.
The performance of the sector on the stock exchange
The real estate sector in the Milanese market closed the eighth in positive territory with the FTSE Italia All Share Real Estate index rising by 3%. The sector also performed well at a European level, with the Stoxx 600 Real Estate index gaining 3.5%.
Among the real estate companies listed on Piazza Affari, Brioschi gains more than 6 percentage points, while IGD rises by more than 3%. Abitare IN closes with +2.9% and Next Re limits the increase to 1.3%. Aedes +1.2%. Gabetti’s rise was fractional +0.3%. On the downside, Sanitation with a 5% decline.
