The debate on the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) 2028-2034 is getting to the heart of Brussels and the first internal documents of the European Parliament, unless corrective, seem punitive for Italy due to drastic cuts.
In fact, although these are still working hypotheses and scenario simulations, the numbers circulating indicate a possible restrictive turn that would hit Italy particularly hard.
EU, Italy towards a reduction of 10 billion
According to the technical analyzes currently being examined by the European Parliament, our country could find itself managing a 12% cut in overall funds compared to the current programming cycle.
In absolute terms, financial availability would go from 82.45 billion in the period 2021-2027 to approximately 72.39 billion, with a theoretical cut of approximately 10 billion euros.
The figure appears even more significant when compared with the European average, which envisages cuts of around 8%. While Poland seems to be able to limit losses to 5%, Italy is placed (along with France and Spain) in the group of nations that would suffer the heaviest impact of budget reshaping.
Notices and SMEs
The heart of the concern concerns cohesion funds, the main instrument with which the Regions finance tenders for the digitalisation and internationalization of SMEs.
The new budget could introduce a flexible quota system that would present national governments with drastic choices.
Optimistic scenario: if Italy decided to lock down cohesion, the decline would be limited to around 5 billion (going from 42.1 to 37.8 billion).
Critical scenario: if flexible resources were diverted to other emergencies (such as defense or common debt), the budget for regional development could almost halve, sliding towards a minimum threshold of 20.2 billion.
This uncertainty risks translating into a drastic reduction in the frequency and capacity of territorial tenders, a fundamental pillar for the competitiveness of the Italian productive fabric.
Social policies
The sector which, according to the documents, would undergo the most radical transformation is that of social policies. The current European Social Fund Plus (ESF+) could lose its financial autonomy to be reabsorbed into a single “horizontal” spending objective.
Estimates describe a potential downsizing of 42% at a European level. For Italy, the impact would be drastic: from the current 15 billion to a maximum of 5.7 billion.
These are resources that feed today
- professional training;
- the retraining of workers (fundamental in the era of artificial intelligence);
- incentives for youth employment;
- inclusion projects.
Without these coverages, many corporate welfare programs and support for social impact startups would risk remaining without resources.
Agriculture
An element in contrast concerns the agricultural sector, which could benefit from the greater flexibility introduced by the new budget structure. At a European level, the resources allocated to agriculture could increase significantly compared to the current cycle, with a possible overall growth of more than 90 billion.
A strengthening of the allocations is also expected for Italy, estimated at approximately 11 additional billion. This would be the only large chapter of expanding expenditure, confirming a rebalancing of European priorities which, in the new framework, tends to favor food safety and stability of agricultural markets over cohesion interventions and social policies.
A European reform still to be written
It is worth reiterating that these figures currently represent a simulation of the risks based on the first drafts of the reform, intercepted by the press and made known.
The political game has just begun: the Italian Government, together with its European partners, will be called upon to negotiate in the coming months to prevent the hypothesis of cuts from turning into a penalizing reality for the growth and social stability of the country.
