Back to go up the consumer trust and of businessesafter consecutive months of decline. In May 2025 the data passes respectively from 92.7 a 96.5 and from 91.6 to 93.1. An improvement due mainly to the market services sector and, to a more contained extent, to that of retail trade and manufacture. As for business confidence, the data had been the decline for three months.
Consumer trust grows
The index of the climate of consumer trust is calculated starting from nine questions considered particularly significant to measure the level of optimism or pessimism of Italian families. The responses, expressed in terms of weighted sales (i.e. the difference between those who provide for an improvement and who worsen), are aggregated through a simple arithmetic average. The result is then transformed into an index number, taking the value 100 as a basis referring to the year 2021.
As for consumers, the data are in improvement In all opinions, after the drops of the past few months, especially those on the general economic situation:
- The climate of trust is 96.5, from 92.7 last month;
- The economic climate, which summarizes judgments and expected on the Italian economy and expectations on unemployment, is now at 97.5 (from 89.6);
- The personal climate, based on the family and financial sphere, is instead at 96.1 (93.9);
- The current climate, which considers only the current assessments, is 98.6 (95.4);
- Finally that future, which is based exclusively on expectations, is now at 93.7 (from 89.1).
According to Istat data, therefore, all opinions are marked by improvement, especially the judgments and expectations on the country’s economic situation.
On the business data also
Positive signals come from all business sectors, with the exception of constructions:
- In fact, the climate of trust of companies is at 93.1 (91.6);
- that of manufacturing companies rises to 86.5 (85.8);
- The climate of confidence of construction companies is the only one in decline, which goes to 102.2 from 103.6;
- The climate of trust of market services companies is growing at 94.5 (91.4);
- Finally, the climate of confidence of the retail companies rises by 102.8 (101.8).
After three months of decrease, therefore, the general data of the companies records an increase.
But consumer associations remain cautious
These are undoubtedly positive signals for our economy, and which affect shopping, employment and investments. But for the Codacons It is still early to sing Vittoria, especially for a possible commercial war between the USA and the EU and the growing geopolitical tensions International, which for the association “represent in serious danger and could in the coming weeks influence not only on the expectations of consumers and businesses, but also on the Italian economy, leading to a worsening of all indices”.
Also Massimiliano Dona, president of theNational Consumer Uniondoes not sing victory quickly:
“A swallow does not make spring. In fact, it could only be a rebound, after the collapse recorded in April, when the trust had precipitated to 92.7, the worst figure of October 2023. Not for nothing the May figure remains lower both to that of February 2025 and in January. We will therefore have to wait for June to understand the real trend of this indicator and if it is a turnaround”.
