Donald Trump announced imminent duties against Europe And Italian companies are preparing for the impact of the measures.
Relating toExtra-EU exportsthe United States represent the First commercial partner of Italy. The possible application of the duties to Italy would be a serious blow to the national economy, which would reverberate with particular roughness on certain regions and provinces.
The regions most affected by duties
The Italian regions most exposed to the impact of US duties are:
- Liguria;
- Molise;
- Basilicata;
- Sardinia.
These depend more on exports to the US and operate in the strategic sectors affected by customs rates. This is what emerges from a study by Prometheia, in which it is estimated as Italy could suffer damage Up to 9 billion euros due to the commercial war with the US.
In general, the less internationalized regions are relatively more protected by commercial turbulence. However, the duties risk compromising the growth paths of Italian companies in the USA.
Regarding the introduction of Trump’s duties, two scenarios are ventilated:
- 10% increase on existing duties;
- the application of a generalized boding of 10% on all Italian import;
In the first scenarioLiguria and Molise would see an 11% penalty on their exports to the USA, which would hit strategic sectors such as naval shipbuilding, petrochemical, chemistry and automotive. Emilia-Romagna, Campania and Umbria would also be involved, but with a greater ability to adapt thanks to the diversification of the markets.
In the second scenariothe generalized duty would hit Abruzzo and Tuscany hard, penalizing sectors so far less subject to rates. If other regions cry, the Lombardy It does not laugh: as regards the absolute values, Lombardy would be the most affected region, being the largest economic engine of the peninsula, with losses estimated up to 1.8 billion euros, especially in the fashion and mechanical sectors.
By probing the moods of 408 Lombard companies operating in the tertiary sector, Confcommercio found that for 3 out of 4 entrepreneurs any US duties would be resolved in a 5% increase in prices to consumption. This is a founded hypothesis, since after the introduction of the protectionist measures wanted by Trump during his first term, the price loaded on imported goods went to weigh entirely on the final consumer
The most exposed provinces
At the provincial level, the top five of the most vulnerable areas includes:
- Sassari and Nuoro (lactiero-caseario);
- Isernia (chemistry);
- Genoa (shipbuilding and petrochemical);
- Grosseto (agri -food);
- Belluno (glasses).
Confindustria highlighted how, at national level, there are three key sectors that would be damaged by Trump’s duties: drinks (39%), cars (30.7%), other means of transport (34%) and pharmaceutical (– 30.7%).
What are Trump’s duties
Donald Trump announced one politics protectionist who, in his intentions, should go to stimulate the internal market of the United States by going to reduce import of foreign products. The duties were initially announced against China, and particularly punitive measures have been applied to Canada and Mexico.
Trump’s intention is to push the two neighbors to renegotiate the USMCA (United-Messic-Canada) agreement with more favorable conditions for the USA. For this he decided to present himself at the table of the negotiations in 2026 in a position of strength. Trump has announced a policy of customs duties also against Europe. When asked if he intended to penalize the country of Giorgia Meloni, Trump replied “I like you very much, we’ll see what happens”.
