A New war front in the Middle East. A few days ago Israel hit various Iranian sensitive objectives with missiles, declaring that he wants to eliminate the Iranian nuclear program with the mission Rising Lion. In fact, Israel has declared that he feared a possible use of Iranian atomic weapons on his territory in the near future, thus intervening in a preventive way. Iran has responded to the attack giving way to a conflict still in progress and constantly evolving. The two countries are long -standing enemies but now the situation has become more critical, so much so that there is also a rumor of a possible US involvement. So how is the Iranian nuclear program done? Are they really so close to an atomic device?
The enrichment of the fuel
Before understanding in detail what is happening, it is necessary to spend two words to explain the process of enrichment. Synthesizing, it is a process that through the use of details gas And centrifuges increases the percentage of Uranium 235that is, that isotope of uranium that serves to have nuclear fission reactions. So these de facto centrifuges increase their concentration. This operation is essential to produce the fuel Used in civil nuclear power plants, such as Bushehr’s, just to produce atomic weapons. Although obviously there is a substantial difference between the two uses.
Nuclear power plants require an enrichment of the uranium around between 3 and 5%. While atomic weapons work with a much higher enrichment, also of the 90%. The difference arises from the fact that of enriched uranium, being more concentrated, it serves less, and therefore it is excellent for being put on missiles, which must be light to be able to be transported and also launched by great distances. At the same time it is a much more process complicated, long And costly.
What does Iran do in these enrichment systems? Officially produces fuel For their nuclear power plant, then it is part of the first category. But on this point we return later.
The map of Iranian nuclear sites
Let’s start from the map, so as to see what are the main structures related to the world of nuclear in Iran.
First of all we have Bushehr which is the only one Iranian nuclear power plant And it is civil, therefore it is used for the production of electricity, as well as those that are in any other part of the world.
In addition to this they are present Two plants Of enrichment to Natanz and Fordowa whole series of scientific and medical research centers, such as those of Tehran and of Arak (attacked in recent days by Israel), and also a center for the processing of the raw uranium mineral, which the Center of Isfahan. Because yes, Iran also has mines of uranium, which are actually scattered in various locations in the area and which allow a constant supply of material.
Regarding the enrichment systems, in both cases the centrifuges are found underground. In the case of Natanz we are a 20-30 meters deep Compared to the surface, while for Fordow we are talking about at least 80-90 meters. This info will come in handy later.
But how do we know all these things? How do we be sure that in the various plants they actually have not already made a bomb?
The agreement on Iranian nuclear power
Everything is born with theAgreement on Iranian nuclear powerentered into force the October 18, 2015. With this agreement Iran undertakes to have a nuclear program that is exclusively peaceful, So they can produce electricity, they can do research, but they cannot produce weapons nor enrich the uranium more than necessary. THE Signatory countries, like those union Europeanthe Chinathe Russia they United Statescommit themselves to the other side to Remove the sanctions towards Iran – at least those relating to nuclear proliferation. These penalties are not only cheap but include a ban on traveling to certain countries, prohibition to withdraw Iranian goods that are in other countries, or commercial limits.
So after the signature Iran had a series of stakes that was to respect: for example, it could not enrich the uranium more than 3.67%had to eliminate the medium enrichment reserves and reduce low enrichment ones, plus other clauses.
Obviously the word of honor of Iran was not sufficient and it was necessary to find a way to check that all the agreements were respected. For this reason, Iranian nuclear structures began to be strictly monitored by IaeatheInternational Agency for Atomic Energythe entity that global most of the plants and ensures that each structure is used only for peaceful purposes. So they could freely access the Iranian systems and have installed all over the years a detection and cameras system to make sure it all went as a program.
And in fact for several years it has been like this, Iaea has confirmed it. At least until 2018, when Donald Trump He made the US out of this program, going to impose penalties at Iran again. Consequently the country gradually has resumed to enrich the uraniumfirst until 5%then to 20% and recently we have rehearsals that the 60% about. In the last period then the IAEA checks have been reduced in an important way and therefore for all these things put together, the Fear of a possible Iranian atomic weapon it is always bigger.
Is Iran really producing atomic weapons?
At the moment it would seem that Iran actually does not already have a ready -to -use weaponas confirmed also by Rafael Grossidirector of Iaea, during an interview with the CNN. In fact, there are no data that indicate us uranium enriched to a point that has a weapon that can be launched on an enemy country, precisely because it is not very enriched uranium would weigh too much To be put on a missile launched at such a distance. But also assuming it was already there 90% enriched uranium In some warehouse that we do not know, to make an atomic fission weapon (but also a bomb H) serves a huge amount of extreme precision devicesand therefore to design a weapon of this type, months are always needed if not years.
So even if some high Iranian charges have hinted to be one step away from the weapon, the Iaea at the moment is of another warning And he believes that Iran is not in possession of atomic weapons, and that it will probably not yet be for some time. Of the same opinion is also Tulsi Gabbarddirector of the US intelligence, who in March declared in front of the US congress that Iran is not working on an atomic weapon.
What we can say with a certain degree of certainty is that the Iranian nuclear program is currently slowed down: Israeli attacks a Natanz – which is where the material is enriched – they have eliminated everything on the surface, therefore all the power supply, therefore the centrifuges are certainly at the moment.
Different speech to Fordow, where instead the damage seems to be much more contained. Also because here the plants are much deeper and it seems that only a few unhingely US bombs with the American B52 are able to do damage to these depths.
