The second deadline for cutting excise duties on fuel is approaching. The first was ordered by the Meloni government in March, then extended to April. Without the excise duty cut of 24.4 cents, the rise in petrol and diesel prices will once again show up at the pumps and be felt directly and indirectly in citizens’ pockets.
Two paths open up: extension or no extension. In the first case, prices, although still high, would be mitigated compared to international increases. But in the event of no extension, based on the current price of diesel and adding the 24.4 cents, there would be a risk of reaching the highest figure in Europe for the price of diesel. Even petrol would touch the psychological threshold of 2 euros per litre.
When does the excise tax cut expire?
With just a few days left before the excise duty cut expires, the measure to mitigate the surge in petrol and diesel prices, it is still unclear what will happen to petrol stations from 2 May 2026. Will there be a new extension? The hypothesis should not be set aside, but there is also the possibility that an extension will not be decided due to the cost of the measure.
In the scenario of extension of the measure, diesel petrol prices would remain close to current ones. However, there is the variable component which depends on the international situation, but the cut in excise duties would mitigate the increase by 24.4 cents.
How much would the extension cost us?
The problem is the search for resources. At the moment, almost 1 billion euros have already been spent for the 45 days of excise duty cuts, therefore from 19 March to 1 May.
As he writes Il Sole 24 Oreit is an investment for the benefit of citizens and businesses which is difficult to replicate due to the costs and the fact that the Meloni government is already seeking coverage for other useful interventions such as the Housing Plan and the decree against poor work.
The Minister of Transport and Infrastructure, Matteo Salvini, speaking with journalists on the transatlantic in the Chamber, on the extension of the excise duty declared:
We are talking to you, but alone it is not enough because the cut in excise duties on the budgets of road haulage companies is not forthcoming.
And again:
And since there is a strike already called today for May 25th for a week, blocking Italy for a week means chaos, it means paralysis, it means going back to the times of Covid and closing down.
On this point he pushes Europe’s responsibility.
Salvini’s words were: “So either Europe allows us to help or we help without caring what Europe tells us.” The reference is the suspension of the stability pact rejected by Brussels.
How the price will change
In the event of no extension, starting from May 2nd the prices of diesel and petrol would immediately undergo a surge equal to the current excise duty cut. Therefore, in addition to the price of diesel and petrol still being very high due to the standoff on the Strait of Hormuz, a +24.4 cents per liter would immediately be visible at the distributors.
Looking at today’s prices (Sunday 26 April 2026) at the self-service:
| Fuel | Street | Motorway | Road +24.4 | Highway +24.4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gas | 1,736 | 1,786 | 1,976 | 2,026 |
| Diesel | 2,062 | 2,177 | 2,302 | 2,417 |
Italy, in this scenario, would be the only country in Europe in which diesel would exceed the threshold of 2.3 euros per litre.
