The OECD has reported a more resilient economy than expected globally, both for emerging countries and for the United States, in spite of the duties and uncertainties of a geopolitical nature. World growth estimates were raised at 3.2% from 2.9% for this year, while GDP growth is confirmed in 2026 to 2.9%.
Risks and opportunities for the world economy
The solid trend of emerging economies and the full -bodied investments in artificial intelligence (AI), especially in the United States, also contributed to support global growth, even if future repercussions on the labor market are awaited.
The global context remains complex. The United States raised bilateral duties at an average level of 19.5% – the highest since 1933 – generating commercial tensions which, according to the Obce, begin to be felt on expenditure, work and consumer prices. “Increased increases in unemployment rates and a braking of new hires are observed,” reads the report, which also reports a stabilized disinflation and a new impulse at the prices of food goods.
For the future, various risks are folded down: duties, tax constraints and inflationary pressures. In addition, the volatility of cryptocurrencies may have repercussions on financial stability. On the positive front, the loosening of commercial restrictions or faster progress in artificial intelligence could encourage more solid growth.
USA and China in braking, Europe keeps better
In the United States, a sharp drop in growth is expected, from 2.8% of 2024 to 1.8% of 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, due to the increase in customs tariffs, the blocking of immigration and the consequent reduction of the workforce.
China also records a significant slowdown in growth, from 4.9% in 2025 to 4.4% in 2026, with the progressive exhaustion of the stimulus measures, the entry into force of higher duties and the loss of tax support.
The growth of the GDP of the Euro area, on the other hand, will suffer a more contained but constant slowdown, from 1.2% in 2025 to 1% in 2026, with the increase in commercial tensions and geopolitical uncertainty partly compensated by greater public investments and more favorable credit conditions.
OECD promotes public finances Italy
The OECD has confirmed moderate growth for the Italian economy, confirming an increase of 0.6% in 2025 and limiting the 2026 to the same rate (in June it was +0.7%). The organization based in Paris instead revised the inflation slightly down: +1.9% in 2025 and +1.8% in 2026, both 0.1 points less than the June forecasts. A slowdown that reflects the stabilization of prices in the euro area, where medium wait inflation drops to 2.1% this year and 1.9% others.
For Italy, the Economist head Alvaro Santos Pereira stressed that the budget position “is better than a few years ago”. A conclusions that also pushed the Fitch Rating Agency to improve the rating on the Belpaese debt.
However, the OECD invited the government not to lower the guard: “It is essential to continue reducing public debt, still high, to free resources now intended for interest and make the country less vulnerable to external crises”. Alongside the consolidation of the accounts, the OECD recommends continuing to the structural reforms: bureaucratic simplification, greater competition and investments in competences.
