The real estate sector experienced another week driven more by ECB rate expectations and the geopolitical context than by individual company news. In a context in which markets remain sensitive to the mix of still sticky inflation, volatile energy prices and geopolitical risk in the Middle East, real estate securities showed limited movements, with a strong differentiation between the various types of assets.
Focus on ECB, Fed and geopolitical risk
On the macro front, the most recent indications confirm that the ECB remains in a phase of monetary policy that is still restrictive or in any case not accommodating, with the markets continuing to price in possible movements in rates during the year. In parallel, expectations on the Federal Reserve’s future decisions remain a key driver for global markets: the trajectory of US rates in fact influences the cost of capital, the dollar and the general sentiment on real assets, with indirect effects also on European real estate.
The geopolitical context has added further volatility: tensions related to energy and the Middle East have supported the narrative of potentially stiffer inflation, a historically negative factor for real estate as it puts pressure on real rates.
The macro data of the week
Mortgage applications are rising again in the United States. In the week to 8 May, the index measuring the volume of mortgage loan applications recorded an increase of 1.7%, after the -4.4% recorded the previous week. The index relating to refinancing requests fell by 0.8%, while that relating to new applications rose by 3.8%. The Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) indicated that 30-year mortgage rates rose just to 6.46% from 6.45% previously.
Positive signals have come from the US real estate market. Sales of existing homes recorded an increase of 0.2% in April after the -2.9% reported in March. According to what was communicated by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), 4.02 million homes were sold compared to 4.01 million in March and compared to the 4.05 million expected.
Sector studies
Also in the fourth quarter of 2025, the mortgage market continues its significant growth, confirming the trend already found in previous surveys. This was revealed by the analysts of Kìron Partner, a credit brokerage company of the Tecnocasa Group. Italian families received financing for the purchase of a home for a total of 14.9 billion euros, marking a significant increase of +7.4% compared to the same period in 2024 (+1,035 million euros). The overall amount of disbursements in 2025 rises to 55.6 billion euros, recording an annual performance of + 24.9% compared to 2024.
“The wait for the rate rise, currently premature, indicates the desire to avoid a slowdown in economic growth (already in crisis), but also the choice not to fuel inflation, as happened between 2020 and 2022. In conclusion, the consequences of war conflicts for inflation and economic growth will depend on the intensity and duration of the shock on energy prices which could transform into real inflation, requiring, at that point, intervention of monetary policy” – declares Oscar Cosentini, President of Kìron Partner.
The performance of the sector on the stock exchange
The real estate sector in the Milanese square closed the eighth in negative territory with the FTSE Italia All Share Real Estate index falling by 3.2%. The sector also performed poorly at a European level, with the Stoxx 600 Real Estate index losing 1.3%.
Among the real estate companies listed on Piazza Affari, Gabetti lost over 5 percentage points, followed by Risanamento and IGD which left around 3% on the ground. Aedes also fell (-2.8%) while Brioschi and Dotstay gained around 1%. On equality Next Re.
