The Council of Ministers was convened today, Friday 22 May at 7.00 pm, to launch the quater fuel decree, with which the government is called upon to decide whether or not to extend the new cut on petrol and diesel excise duties. Without this intervention, the risk is that the price of fuel will rise again, with immediate effects on families, businesses and consumption.
How much does the excise duty cut affect the prices of petrol and diesel
The current tax discount, guaranteed by the fuel decree – already extended several times and now expiring again – guarantees savings equal to:
- 6.1 cents per liter on petrol;
- 24.4 cents per liter on diesel (also considering the VAT effect).
For those who use a diesel car and fill up on average 50 litres, the savings can exceed 12 euros per fill-up. However, if the cut suddenly ceased, the effect would be immediate:
- a full tank of petrol would cost around 3 euros more;
- a full diesel tank could go up by more than 12 euros.
For a family using two cars, the monthly increase could easily exceed 40-50 euros.
How the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz weighs on costs
The new tension between the United States and Iran, with the consequent risk of destabilization of the Strait of Hormuz, is the first element that is shaking the energy markets. Since it is one of the focal points of global oil trade (around a fifth of global crude oil passes through there), any military or diplomatic escalation in the area almost automatically translates into an increase in the price of crude oil.
For Italy, which is heavily dependent on energy imports, all this translates into an increase in the cost of raw materials (and everything that any intervention to correct the markets entails on a social and economic level).
To calm the situation and not block the economy, the State is forced to give up billions of euros in taxes. However, that money is used to finance public services. If the government gives in to pressure and cuts taxes, it weakens the state’s finances; if it doesn’t do so, it risks suffocating the economy and unleashing social discontent. In practice, Italy risks not only paying more for energy, but being forced to choose between tidy public accounts and social peace, in a balance that becomes increasingly precarious every time the international situation worsens.
Because the government is aiming for an extension
According to the latest rumours, the most probable hypothesis is the extension of the current discounts until at least 8 or 9 June, waiting for the mobile excise duty mechanism to be activated again, a system that allows the cuts to be financed thanks to the VAT extra revenue generated by the increase in prices.
The decree should also include the extension of the tax credit for hauliers, a measure already introduced to compensate for fuel purchases made between March and May. The transport sector – one of the most affected by the price increase – is putting strong pressure on the government, threatening a 5-day national strike (from 25 to 29 May 2026), with possible blockages of national logistics. Hence the choice to convene the Council of Ministers.
A possible stoppage of the trucks would have enormous consequences and would entail:
- delays in deliveries;
- the increase in industrial costs;
- problems in food distribution.
And this is a scenario that the executive wants to avoid at all costs.
What happens if the extension does not arrive
If the renewal of the excise duty cut does not arrive, the market would react almost immediately and there would be an increase in the prices of petrol, diesel and LPG at distributors within a few days. Furthermore, since logistics and goods transport in Italy mainly move by road, the higher costs incurred by companies would gradually be transferred to the final prices of the products, once again fueling the cost of living.
Considering then that for many families a more expensive tank is equivalent to a remodulation of the domestic budget, with a greater share of income necessarily destined for travel and transport, there would be a natural contraction in spending and consumption in other sectors, such as trade or services, slowing down the general economic dynamic.
