In the first minutes after the opening of the financial markets on 3 May 2026, the spread between Italian BTPs and German Bunds increased slightly to 74 basis points, compared to the 72 with which it closed the last session. Treasury bond yields reached 3.74%, also rising.
This instability is dictated by the mutual attacks that Iran and the United States exchanged during the night in the Persian Gulf. This is the most intense clash since the beginning of the ceasefire between the two countries. Despite this, peace talks are reportedly still ongoing.
Spread slightly increasing, the EU opens up flexibility to Italy
Despite tensions in the Middle East, which led to the most intense attacks between Iran and the United States since the start of the ceasefire, the spread between BTPs and Bunds increased by only a few points, remaining roughly in line with last week’s average. The differential reached 74 basis points, with BTP yields at 3.74%.
A movement that also depends on rumors that the EU Commission is ready to grant Italy a margin of flexibility of 0.3% of the ratio between deficit and GDP to deal with the energy crisis. This is a lower figure than that requested by Meloni, which should release around 6.8 billion euros.
Additional debt, which will cancel part of the work done by the Ministry of Economy in recent years to restore state finances, reducing deficit spending and often giving up important measures for the electoral base of some of the majority parties.
European spreads stable
Perhaps this very perspective, combined with Italy’s structural problems of debt and exposure to the energy crisis, has determined the difference in behavior of Italian government bonds compared to the rest of Europe. The main economies of the continent, in fact, have not noticed variations similar to the Italian ones in the yields of their government bonds.
| Government bonds | Returns | Spreads |
|---|---|---|
| German Bunds | 3.00% | – |
| Italian BTPs | 3.74% | 74 |
| French Oats | 3.62% | 62 |
| Spanish bonos | 3.42% | 42 |
Spanish Bonos remained at a spread of 42 basis points from Bunds, with yields of 3.42%. Similarly, the French Oat confirmed a spread of 62 basis points and a yield of 3.62%.
The June auction and issue calendar
In June there will be another opportunity to invest in Italian debt. The State will in fact make the new Italia Sì BTPs available to retail investors for one week, from Monday 15 June to Friday 19 June 2026. The usual auctions of Government bonds will also be held. The dates to mark on the calendar are:
- Wednesday 10 June, Bot auction;
- Thursday 11 June, medium-long term auction;
- Wednesday 24 June, auction of Short Term BTPs and BTP€i
- Thursday 25 June, Bot auction;
- Friday 26 June, medium-long term auction.
