In recent days the United States has struck over 100 Iranian military targets located along the coastal areas and Iran has attacked American bases located in the region with missiles and drones. Since the beginning of July 2026, geopolitical tensions in the area around the Strait of Hormuz have intensified again in the US-Iran war, so much so that American President Donald J. Trump himself stated during a press conference on the sidelines of the latest NATO summit in Ankara that, among other things, “the truce is over”. These events – in addition to talks with Netanyahu and an alleged Iranian plot to assassinate Trump – once again cast a shadow on the possibility that peace negotiations between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran could reach a successful conclusion.
The Islamabad Memorandum: a strategic defeat for the USA
On 17 June 2026, during two separate ceremonies held respectively in Tehran and at the palace of Versailles, not far from Paris, the American president Trump and the Iranian president Pezeshkian had countersigned the so-called “Islamabad Memorandum”, divided into 14 points and interpreted by most analysts as a sort of American capitulation towards Iran, which in fact emerged significantly strengthened on the diplomatic side and in virtual control of the incoming and exit to and from the Persian Gulf through the “choke point” constituted by the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and Oman are now reportedly working on a plan to introduce toll collection for ships transiting the Strait: US Central Command (Centcom) has formally denied that Iran has control of the Strait.
Then there is the geopolitical issue of the situation in Lebanon. Iran has in fact linked the implementation of the Memorandum to the complete cessation of hostilities in Lebanese territory and therefore to the end of Israeli military operations against Hezbollah, but the Jewish State has until now continued to maintain a freedom of action independent of the wishes of the main players in the Middle Eastern dispute. Given these premises, many wondered how long this false truce could last.
The continuation of tensions, the new cross-attacks and the funeral of Ali Khamenei
The situation saw a sharp acceleration during the last days of June, when cross-attacks began again amid the stalemate in negotiations. Obviously the duelists in both Washington and Tehran did not hesitate to shift the blame onto their opposing counterparts, simultaneously announcing an expansion of their respective military actions in response to the violation of the spirit of the Islamabad Memorandum.
Between 7 and 8 July the escalation led the United States to strike around eighty Iranian military sites located along the coastal areas, especially in the area of Bushehr, Bandar Abbas and Konarak (to which other targets were added in recent days), while the Pasdaran attacked with missiles and drones the American bases located in the region, in particular those located in Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain, which had already been damaged during the active phase of the war. In addition to attacks directed against US bases in the Gulf, some Iranian missiles were also intercepted in Jordan.
Making the atmosphere even more incandescent were the funerals, just concluded in Mashhad, of the former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed at the start of hostilities together with some family members. An epochal event – which the local press celebrated as the largest funeral in world history, with 40 million participants – which profoundly shook the country, also marked by the absence of his successor Mojtaba for security reasons.
Truce or new Iran-USA war: predictions for the future and the plan against Trump
It is very difficult to say at the moment what the future holds for us. Some analysts have openly spoken of a return to war while others have instead interpreted the American action as a way to recover some coercive levers in the diplomatic arena.
Although no scenario should be discarded a priori, it would seem that the second explanation is the most likely one because at the moment the Americans, who over the past few months have withdrawn a whole series of fundamental naval and air assets from the area, can no longer rely on adequate logistical support to carry out a large-scale and long-lasting conflict. That same support which, proving lacking during the month of March 2026, had decreed the interruption of American military operations and their allies and Iran’s victory during the first phase of the war.
It remains to be understood, once again, what Israel’s role will be. According to what was reported by the Axios newspaper, in the last few hours American President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu had a long telephone conversation to coordinate their future actions with the ever active Defense Minister Katz stating that Israel is ready to resume air strikes.
According to rumors published by the Wall Street Journal, the Israeli secret services would also have shared the details of an Iranian plan to assassinate Trump with their Stars and Stripes counterparts, but such news must be treated with the utmost attention given the massive use of propaganda and the dissemination of false information which the contenders have resorted to several times in the past.
