Topics such as record temperatures, fires, droughts and extreme weather phenomena are now commonplace and increasingly worrying. However, global warming is no longer just an environmental issue, but is a phenomenon capable of impacting the economic growth of a country.
Take, for example, heat waves, which are affecting Italy and Europe with increasing frequency. These have a cost that goes well beyond the immediately visible damage. Behind every day of work lost due to extreme temperatures, every harvest compromised by drought or every infrastructure damaged by exceptional climatic events, there are hidden costs and losses that risk compromising the well-being of businesses and families, both in the short and long term.
How much global warming costs Italy
According to a new analysis carried out by the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), in collaboration with Deloitte and the European University Institute, global warming could cost Italy up to 6 points of GDP by 2050 if effective mitigation and adaptation policies are not adopted.
The study compares two different scenarios:
- in the first, the Italian economy grows without having to face the effects of climate change;
- in the second, however, the country is forced to bear the costs caused by the increase in temperatures, extreme weather events and their consequences on the entire economic system.
From the analysis, what emerged is that – compared to the scenario without climate damage – by 2050 the Italian GDP could be lower by between 1.6% and 6% due to the damage caused by global warming. Furthermore, considering that Italy stands out for structurally weak growth, the authors of the research estimate that this reduction could be equivalent to up to 15% of what it could have recorded between 2025 and 2050.
The losses, more or less serious, will depend not only on the intensity of the atmospheric phenomena but also on the ability of politicians to implement effective measures to limit their impacts.
How heat affects productivity
Among the most significant effects are those caused by heat waves on labor productivity. This is because when temperatures reach extreme levels it becomes more difficult to work, especially in sectors that involve outdoor activities such as construction, agriculture, logistics and infrastructure maintenance. But even in closed environments, if not adequately air-conditioned, the heat reduces concentration, increases fatigue and decreases performance.
According to estimates reported in the study, economic losses due to the reduction in productivity caused by heat waves are between 0.3% and 0.5% of European GDP, with impacts exceeding 1% in the most vulnerable areas. Furthermore, in the absence of further adaptation interventions, from 2060 these losses could exceed 1.1% of European GDP.
Losses at European level
Obviously, climate change is not a problem just for Italy. Just to give some numbers, in the period between 1980 and 2024, extreme events caused economic losses of around 822 billion euros in the European Union. Between 2021 and 2024, however, losses exceeded 208 billion euros, equal to over a quarter of the entire amount recorded in the previous 45 years.
In fact, with the increase in frequency and intensity, extreme climate events are also increasing the overall economic cost.
The figures mainly take into account damage to physical assets, such as:
- buildings;
- infrastructure;
- production plants;
- transport networks.
The estimates do not include numerous indirect costs, which are often more difficult to quantify, such as health, social, production and distribution costs. Otherwise, the quantifiable damage would be even greater.
