The rate increase decided by the ECB in June does not translate, at least in the first available data, into a new increase in the overall cost of home mortgages. In June 2026 the APR on new loans to families for the purchase of homes stood at 3.95%, just below the 3.96% recorded in May. At the same time, loans to families accelerated to +2.7% on an annual basis, from +2.6% in the previous month.
It is the photograph that emerges from the new relationship “Banks and money: national series” by the Bank of Italy, published today, with reference to June 2026.
The picture is, however, less uniform than the overall data suggests. Lending to the private sector accelerates at 3.3% from 3.1% in May, but while credit to families grows, credit to businesses slows down. And, above all, the cost of consumer credit remains very high, with an APR still above 10%.
Mortgages at 3.95%: what happens after the ECB increase
The most immediate data for families concerns the home. In May the APR on new mortgages had reached 3.96%, up from 3.91% in April. QuiFinanza had already analyzed the increase in mortgage APR close to the 4% threshold.
In June the trend stops, at least marginally: the Taeg goes to 3.95%.
The change of one cent is too small to speak of a real decrease in the cost of mortgages, but the figure is significant because June is the first month that incorporates, albeit only in its second part, the increase in ECB rates which came into force on June 17th. The rate on deposits was raised to 2.25%, that on main refinancing operations to 2.40% and the rate on marginal operations to 2.65%.
The transfer of monetary policy decisions to bank financing is, however, neither immediate nor uniform. At the following meeting in July, the ECB then left rates unchanged. QuiFinanza explained what this situation entails in the comparison between fixed and variable rate mortgage after the latest ECB decisions.
Bank of Italy also reports that the share of new mortgages with an initial rate determination period of up to one year has risen to 19.9%, from 18.7% in May.
Loans to families growing by 2.7%
The second signal comes from credit volumes. In June, loans to the private sector, adjusted according to the Eurosystem’s harmonized methodology, increased by 3.3% over twelve months, accelerating compared to 3.1% in May.
For families, growth comes from 2.6% to 2.7%.
The data indicates that credit continues to expand despite the level of rates remaining significantly higher than that observed before the monetary restriction phase.
However, it does not automatically mean that Getting a loan has become easier. Volumes disbursed, criteria with which banks grant credit and costs incurred by the customer are different variables. Precisely in the previous months the Bank of Italy had signaled more prudent supply conditions.
Consumer credit still above 10%
The difference becomes evident when looking at consumer credit.
In June the APR on new disbursements drops from 10.37% to 10.33%. Here too the movement is minimal and, above all, the substance does not change: financing purchases through consumer credit continues to cost much more than a real estate mortgage.
For a family that needs to finance a car, a major expense or other consumption, therefore, the cost of money remains high despite the slight decline recorded in the month.
It is one of the most important data in the report precisely because it shows how different the transmission of rates is depending on the type of financing.
Loans to businesses slow to 3.2%
Families and businesses also take slightly different directions.
Loans to non-financial companies grow by 3.2% on an annual basis, but slowing down compared to the +3.5% recorded in May.
On the new loans front, the average rate paid by businesses increases slightly, going from 3.67% to 3.70%.
The size of the loan continues to make a significant difference: for amounts up to one million euros the rate is 4.38%, while for those above one million it drops to 3.36%.
For small and medium-sized businesses, which more frequently resort to low-value financing, the cost of credit remains significantly higher than that applied to larger operations.
Deposits growing, but the average return remains at 0.67%
The Bankitalia report also allows us to observe the other side of the relationship between customer and bank: how much is recognized on the money deposited.
In June, private sector deposits increased by 2.8% year-on-year, up from 2.7% in May. Above all, bank bond collections are accelerating, going from +4.1% to +6%.
The average borrowing rate on all deposits, however, only rises from 0.65% to 0.67%.
The comparison remains clear: the average cost of new credit operations is decidedly higher than the remuneration recognized on the deposited liquidity, even if naturally these are products with different characteristics, risks and durations.
What the new Bankitalia data really say
The June photograph therefore returns a credit market that continues to grow without an immediate new surge in mortgages.
Overall loans accelerate to 3.3%, those to families reach 2.7% and the APR on new mortgages remains substantially stable at 3.95%. On the opposite front, business financing slows down and consumer credit remains expensive, with an APR of 10.33%.
For those who need to buy a house, the June data is therefore moderately favorable, but it does not yet represent a reversal of the trend in rates: a movement of just one cent is not enough to indicate a structural decline.
The point to observe in the coming months will rather be how much and how quickly the June ECB increase will end up being passed on to new bank loans. For families and businesses, it will be the actual cost of credit, rather than the overall growth of loans, that will determine the real impact of the next monetary policy moves.
