The spread between Italian BTPs and German Bunds increased further at the opening of October 1st. The spread hit 103 basis points, with yields rising to 4.64%. These are peaks that have not been seen for some time and which signal that Italian debt is back under pressure.
The markets are mainly concerned about the increase in oil prices and inflation. Yesterday, Istat certified a price increase of 4.2% in September, more than double the objectives.
The spread is at 103 points, it hasn’t happened since 2025
The spread had not reached 103 basis points since May 2025. After exceeding 100 points at the start yesterday, the differential between BTPs and Bunds continued to widen. This growth in the gap between Italian and German securities was caused by inflation data, which in Italy certified the impact of increases in fuel prices, leading prices to grow by 4.2% in a year.
Record yields, what is driving interest on government bonds
If yesterday the spread was increased by a marked reduction in Bund yields, the opening of October 1st recorded a new increase in interest on Italian government bonds. The yields on 10-year BTPs reached 4.64%, the highest figure since the peak in 2023. This growth was caused by the price of oil, in turn caused by fears of a new escalation in the Middle East.
The spread also increases in Spain, France in debt crisis
The effects of the oil market crisis are also felt in Spain, one of the countries with the most stable government bonds in Europe. The differential with Bunds, which had remained around 45 basis points for months, rose at the opening to 55, with yields of 4.16%.
| Government bonds | Returns | Spreads |
|---|---|---|
| German Bunds | 3.61% | – |
| Italian BTPs | 4.64% | 103 |
| French Oats | 4.85% | 126 |
| Spanish bonos | 4.16% | 55 |
France, on the other hand, is in the midst of a crisis, with Oats at 126 basis points from Bunds and yields reaching 4.85%. What is worrying, in this case, is the public debt, which according to many observers is going out of control.
Polls on future presidential elections do not reassure the markets. In fact, a run-off is looming between Marine Le Pen’s far right and Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s far left, both with programs that focus heavily on public spending and propose ignoring European constraints.
The next auctions of government bonds
In October there will be two different opportunities to invest in Italian public debt. The first will be the regular auctions, which will be held:
- Friday 9 October for the Bot auction;
- Tuesday 13 October for the auction of medium and long-term bonds;
- Tuesday 27 October for the auction of Short Term BTPs and BTP€i;
- Wednesday 28 October for the Bots auction;
- Thursday 29 October for the auction of medium and long-term bonds.
The second will be the issue, between 19 and 23 October, of the new BTP Valore dedicated to retail investors.
