The elections in Israel have not decreed a certain winner. With 100% of the votes counted, outgoing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is ahead with 53 seats, but his party does not appear to have the numbers to independently obtain a majority in the Knesset, the Israeli Parliament.
An important element is the result of the Arab-Israeli parties, currently with 19 seats, which could have a sufficient number to influence the formation of the next government. The final count, however, will not arrive before Friday, when approximately 600,000 “double envelopes”, i.e. votes cast by correspondence and remotely, will be scrutinized.
According to local media, Israeli President Isaac Herzog will meet both Benjamin Netanyahu and rival Gadi Eisenkot in the next few days to assess the feasibility of a national unity government.
In fact, if no bloc manages to build a majority, several weeks of negotiations could be necessary and, in case of failure, new elections in 2027.
Meanwhile, the record turnout of 77.7% signals a particularly high participation in these elections characterized by issues such as national security, the situation in Gaza and the political and military budget of recent years. But a possible change of government does not seem to mean a change in Israeli policy towards Gaza and the West Bank.
Record turnout in Israel: voting in a deeply divided country
To understand the result of the elections we must first start from the electoral system present in the country: in Israel, as in Italy, the prime minister is not directly elected. Voters vote for a party list and seats are distributed proportionally to the votes received, provided the electoral threshold of 3.25% is exceeded. The Knesset – the Israeli Parliament – is made up of 120 deputies, so to obtain an absolute majority and support a government you need at least 61 seats. Since no party normally manages to win this number of deputies on its own, the formation of the executive depends on agreements between multiple political forces.
One of the most significant elements of these elections is voter turnout: according to the Israeli Central Election Commission, turnout reached 77.7%, compared to the 70.6% recorded at the same time in the 2022 elections. It is the highest figure since 1999, according to The Times of Israel: participation was also particularly relevant among the Arab citizens of Israel, who represent over a fifth of the population.
For many of them, the vote was an opportunity to contest the policies of the outgoing government and try to influence future decisions, in particular the creation of a Palestinian state. The context is that of a country marked by the attack led by Hamas on 7 October 2023, by the war in Gaza and subsequent regional conflicts and the elections have put the issue of security, trust in Netanyahu’s leadership and the internal divisions within Israeli society at the center. The high turnout, however, does not automatically equate to a consensus for one of the two sides: we must in fact look at the distribution of seats and the concrete possibility of forming a majority.
The weight of the Arab parties: can they have a decisive role in the formation of the government?
The result of the Arab lists is one of the most politically relevant aspects of the vote. Netanyahu’s bloc, in fact, is in the lead, but without the numbers to govern autonomously. Even the Yashar party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, former chief of staff and main rival of the prime minister, remains under the absolute majority with 48 seats, and in this scenario the Arab parties play a decisive role.
Not because they are necessarily destined to enter the government, but because their parliamentary support or, on the contrary, their abstention could contribute to allowing the birth of an alternative executive. The president of the Joint List, Yousef Jabareen, has indicated a willingness to offer conditional parliamentary support for a political alternative. The list brings together three parties: Hadash, Ta’al and Balad.
Another force, Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas, showed up separately. Jabareen called among other things for interventions against crime in Arab communities, to stop the demolition of homes and to reopen discussions on a path towards the creation of a Palestinian state. The formation, however, ruled out wanting to give unconditional support to a possible opposition government.
However, there is a political obstacle: several Israeli opposition parties have declared that they do not want to depend on the Arab lists to govern and Netanyahu himself has ruled out the formation of an executive based on their support. If no bloc manages to build a majority, Israel could face weeks of negotiations and, if that fails, even the prospect of new elections.
What are double-envelope ballots and why they can affect election results
The framework, however, still remains provisional: a significant part of the votes still needs to be verified and counted through the so-called double-envelope ballotsi.e. ballots inserted in a double envelope. The Central Election Commission estimates there are around 600,000, a higher number than recorded in the 2022 elections.
These are mainly votes cast by soldiers and reservists, but also by prisoners, healthcare workers, diplomats abroad and people who vote far from their usual polling place. The double envelope allows you to verify the voter’s identity and ensure that he has not voted more than once, keeping the ballot anonymous.
Because these votes are counted separately, they can change the final distribution of seats. Historically these ballots have relatively favored the Zionist parties compared to the Arab and ultra-Orthodox lists, also due to the greater presence of soldiers among the voters who use this procedure. However, it is not possible to predict with certainty the effect on the final result; what is important, however, is that if the margins between the parties remain small, even changes of one or two seats could affect the negotiations for the formation of the government.
What happens now? Possible scenarios
Once the counting is complete, Israeli President Isaac Herzog will consult representatives of the political forces and will entrust a parliamentarian with the task of trying to form a government. The choice will depend on the evaluation of who has the best chance of obtaining the support of the Knesset, not just who received the most votes.
The candidate in charge will therefore have to negotiate with the other parties to reach at least 61 seats. If no one manages to build a majority, the country could once again find itself faced with a political crisis and the possibility of new elections. The current result therefore has an apparently contradictory message: Netanyahu retains consistent support, but does not have the numbers to govern autonomously and the very political forces that the Israeli system has often relegated to the margins could become decisive in deciding who will lead the country. The question therefore is not only who will govern Israel, but which government will be able to form and what consequences it will have for the war, for Gaza and for the future of the Palestinians.
Gaza and the Palestinians: could anything really change?
In this regard, a possible change of government would not lead to a turning point in Israeli policy towards the Palestinian people. Netanyahu has built part of his political line precisely on national security, on the fight against Hamas and on opposition to the creation of an independent Palestinian state.
His government has also supported the expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and has included far-right forces favoring the annexation of the territory. Eisenkot represents a political alternative to the prime minister, but not a change on the Palestinian issue.
According to a Reuters analysis from October 22, 2026, both leaders oppose the creation of an independent Palestinian state and argue that Hamas must disarm before a withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. Both have declared they would resume massive military operations if these conditions were not met. Slight differences concern the West Bank: Eisenkot does not support unauthorized Israeli outposts and some settlement expansions, while Netanyahu has supported broader settlement policies. For the Palestinians, therefore, even with a change of government it currently appears unlikely that there will be an end to military operations in Gaza or a concrete opening towards a two-state solution.
